This is an archived edition. For the latest picks see College Football Picks Today, updated every game day.
College Football Picks Today: Spread and Total Picks for Saturday, November 7
Every prop on today's slate, ranked live: College Football Player Props Today
The picks
7 picks
Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Odds may have moved since publishing.
Saturday's college football card has a handful of games where PropFinder's projections disagree with the betting market. The headliners are Miami at Notre Dame, Oregon at Ohio State, Alabama at LSU, Texas at Missouri and UCLA at Minnesota.
I pick spreads and totals by comparing PropFinder's game projections with the market line. When the model sees a gap, I write up the side and explain why. Lines move, so check the number before you bet.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Miami visits Notre Dame on NBC and Peacock, with kickoff at 7:30 PM ET. The Hurricanes have eight wins and sit second in PropFinder's power ratings, while the 7-1 Fighting Irish are third. The model projects a 30-26 Notre Dame win, with the home team scoring 30.2 to Miami's 26.2.
MIA +7 (-105, Caesars): PropFinder projects MIA to lose by 4
MIA +7
Point Spread
The market has Notre Dame favored by 7, but the model makes it closer to 4, a 3-point gap. That leaves Miami +7 as the play, and the model gives the Hurricanes a 57% chance to cover.
Notre Dame still wins this game 59% of the time in the projection, so this is about the points, not an upset call. Seven points is a lot for two teams this close in the power ratings.
Oregon Ducks at Ohio State Buckeyes
Oregon visits Ohio State at Ohio Stadium on CBS, with kickoff at 3:30 PM ET. The Buckeyes are 6-2 and fifth in PropFinder's power ratings, and the Ducks are 5-3 and 14th. The model projects a 30-21 Ohio State win, with the Buckeyes at 30.1 and the Ducks at 20.6.
Over 45.5 (-104, Caesars): PropFinder projects 50.7 total points
Over 45.5
Total Points
The market total is 45.5, while the model projects 50.7 combined points, a gap of 5.2. That makes the over 45.5 the play, and the model gives it a 62% chance of hitting.
Ohio State is a 71% win probability in the projection, and a Buckeyes team scoring around 30 gets this game most of the way there by itself. The over is the side I prefer here.
Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers
Alabama visits LSU at Tiger Stadium on ABC, with kickoff at 3:30 PM ET. Both teams are 6-2, with LSU sixth in PropFinder's power ratings and Alabama eighth. The model projects an LSU win, with the Tigers at 28.1 points and the Crimson Tide at 24.5.
ALA +6 (-108, BetMGM): PropFinder projects ALA to lose by 3.5
ALA +6
Point Spread
The market has LSU favored by 6, while the model has the Tigers by 3.5, a 2.5-point gap. That makes Alabama +6 the play, with a 56% chance to cover in the projection.
LSU is still the more likely winner at 58%, so I'm not backing an outright upset. I'm just taking the extra points on a game the model sees as closer than the number suggests.
Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers
Texas visits Missouri at Faurot Field on ESPN, with kickoff at noon ET. Both teams are 6-2, with Texas seventh in PropFinder's power ratings and Missouri 15th. The model projects a 27-21 Texas win, with the Longhorns at 26.6 and the Tigers at 20.6.
TEX -2.5 (-106, Novig): PropFinder projects TEX by 6
TEX -2.5
Point Spread
The market has Texas laying 2.5, while the model has the Longhorns winning by 6, a 3.5-point gap. That makes Texas -2.5 the play, with a 58% chance to cover in the projection.
Missouri has just a 36% chance to win the game outright in the projection. Laying a short number with the higher-rated team is the side I like.
Over 42.5 (-108, FanDuel): PropFinder projects 47.2 total points
Over 42.5
Total Points
The market total is 42.5, while the model projects 47.2 combined points, a gap of 4.7. That makes the over 42.5 the play, and the model gives it a 61% chance of hitting.
This is a relatively low total for two teams with this much power-rating strength, and the projected score clears it by more than a field goal. I like the over.
UCLA Bruins at Minnesota Golden Gophers
UCLA visits Minnesota at Huntington Bank Stadium on FOX, with kickoff at noon ET. The Bruins have eight wins and are 13th in PropFinder's power ratings, while the 5-3 Golden Gophers are 47th. The model projects a UCLA win, with the Bruins at 26 points and Minnesota at 18.5.
UCLA -3.5 (-108, Novig): PropFinder projects UCLA by 7.4
UCLA -3.5
Point Spread
The market has UCLA favored by 3.5, while the model has the Bruins by 7.4, a 3.9-point gap. That makes UCLA -3.5 the play, with a 59% chance to cover in the projection.
Minnesota has just a 33% chance to win in the model. The gap in the power ratings is large, and the market line does not fully reflect it.
Over 38.5 (-100, Novig): PropFinder projects 44.5 total points
Over 38.5
Total Points
The market total is 38.5, while the model projects 44.5 combined points, a gap of 6. That makes the over 38.5 the play, and the model gives it a 64% chance of hitting.
That is the biggest total gap on the slate. A number this low asks for a defensive grind, and the model sees UCLA alone getting to 26 points.
Lines are consensus market numbers at the time of writing and move before kickoff. Projections are PropFinder's game model, not guarantees. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available: call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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