This is an archived edition. For the latest picks see College Football Picks Today, updated every game day.
College Football Picks Today: Spread and Total Picks for Saturday, October 17
Every prop on today's slate, ranked live: College Football Player Props Today
The picks
7 picks
Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Odds may have moved since publishing.
Saturday has several matchups where PropFinder's game projections disagree with the market, led by Ohio State at Indiana, Notre Dame at BYU, Alabama at Tennessee, Florida at Texas and Mississippi State at LSU. Here are the spread and total picks I like.
My game picks come from comparing PropFinder's game projections with the market line. Each pick includes the model line, the market line and the probability behind it.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers
Ohio State, 5-1 and second in PropFinder's power ratings, visits Indiana, which has six wins and sits fifth. Kickoff is noon ET on FOX in Bloomington. PropFinder's projection has this as a dead heat, 26.1 to 26.1, so the market is giving the home team less credit than the model.
IND +3 (-107, Bally Bet): PropFinder projects a pick'em
IND +3
Point Spread
The market has Ohio State favored by 3, but my model line is a pick'em, a 3-point gap. That makes Indiana +3 the pick, and the model gives Indiana a 57% chance to cover. The best price is -107 at Bally Bet.
The model also puts Indiana's win probability at 50%, so this is a game where the home underdog has a real shot at winning outright. Getting a field goal on a projected coin flip is a good spot.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at BYU Cougars
Notre Dame, with six wins and third in PropFinder's power ratings, visits BYU, which has five wins and sits seventeenth. Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET on ABC. The projection is Notre Dame 31.2, BYU 19.2, a combined 50.5 points.
Over 47 (-109, Bally Bet): PropFinder projects 50.5 total points
Over 47
Total Points
The market total is 47 and my model projects 50.5, a 3.5-point gap, so the pick is Over 47. The model gives the over a 58% chance. The best price is -109 at Bally Bet.
Both offenses have enough to get past the number, with the model expecting Notre Dame to carry most of the scoring. If the line moves up toward the projection, the value shrinks, so shop for 47.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers
Alabama and Tennessee are both 5-1, with the Crimson Tide sixth and the Volunteers thirteenth in PropFinder's power ratings. They kick off at 3:30 PM ET on ABC at Neyland Stadium. PropFinder projects Alabama 29.6, Tennessee 24.6.
TENN +7.5 (+104, Novig): PropFinder projects TENN to lose by 5
TENN +7.5
Point Spread
The market has Alabama laying 7.5, while my model line is Alabama by 5, a 2.5-point gap. That makes Tennessee +7.5 the pick, with the model giving the Volunteers a 56% chance to cover. The best price is +104 at Novig.
Tennessee's win probability in the model is 39%, so the home team is live, and a plus-money price on a touchdown-plus is a good number to take.
Over 50.5 (-106, Novig): PropFinder projects 54.2 total points
Over 50.5
Total Points
The total is 50.5 and the model projects 54.2, a 3.7-point gap, so the pick is Over 50.5 with a 59% model probability. The best price is -106 at Novig.
With both teams projected to score in the mid-20s or better, a game that goes over the number is easy to see. This pairs naturally with the Tennessee side, since a close game with points favors both.
Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns
Florida, 4-2 and 25th in PropFinder's power ratings, visits Texas, which is 4-1 and seventh. Kickoff is noon ET on ABC. The model projects Texas 33.1, Florida 20.5, a margin of 12.6 that sits right on the market spread.
Over 51 (-108, Caesars): PropFinder projects 53.6 total points
Over 51
Total Points
The market total is 51 and the model projects 53.6, a 2.6-point gap, so the pick is Over 51, with a 56% model probability. The best price is -108 at Caesars.
The spread is priced about right, so the total is where I see the edge. The model has Texas scoring above 33 and Florida getting to the low 20s, which clears the number.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers
Mississippi State, 4-1 and 23rd in PropFinder's power ratings, visits LSU, which is 4-2 and eighth. Kickoff is noon ET on ESPN at Tiger Stadium. The model projects LSU 35.1, Mississippi State 23.5, a 58.6-point total.
MSST +17.5 (-100, Novig): PropFinder projects MSST to lose by 11.6
MSST +17.5
Point Spread
The market has LSU favored by 17.5, but my model line is LSU by 11.6, a 5.9-point gap, the biggest on the card. That makes Mississippi State +17.5 the pick, with the model giving the Bulldogs a 64% chance to cover. The best price is -100 at Novig.
LSU's win probability is 75%, so the favorite is still the likely winner, but a 17.5-point margin is a lot to ask in a conference game.
Over 55.5 (-106, Novig): PropFinder projects 58.6 total points
Over 55.5
Total Points
The market total is 55.5 and the model projects 58.6, a 3.1-point gap, so the pick is Over 55.5 with a 57% model probability. The best price is -106 at Novig.
A game with LSU in the mid-30s and Mississippi State in the low 20s clears the total on its own, and it fits alongside the Bulldogs getting a big number.
Lines are consensus market numbers at the time of writing and move before kickoff. Projections are PropFinder's game model, not guarantees. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available: call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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