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NHL Picks Today: Moneyline and Total Picks for Thursday, October 22
Every prop on today's slate, ranked live: NHL Player Props Today
The picks
8 picks
Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Odds may have moved since publishing.
Six NHL games are on my radar for Thursday, October 22, and I have picks in each of them. Every pick here comes from PropFinder's game projections compared with the market, and I only act where the model disagrees with the price in a clear way.
Below you will find the projected score, the goalies, the records and the best price I found for each bet. Prices move, so check the number before you wager.
Anaheim Ducks at New Jersey Devils
Anaheim (4-5-0) visits New Jersey (5-4-0). The model projects a 3.55 to 2.95 win for the Devils, with Lukas Dostal expected between the pipes for the Ducks and Jake Allen for New Jersey. Even with the home side favored on the projected score, the market leans harder on the Devils than the model does, and that is where the Anaheim number comes from.
Anaheim Ducks moneyline (+186, Novig): PropFinder model 40.1% to win vs 34.8% implied
Anaheim Ducks
Moneyline
The model gives Anaheim a 40.1% chance to win, while the market implies 34.8%, a gap of 5.3 points. The best price is +186 at Novig. The model rates this a strong play.
The projected margin is only 0.6 goals, so this is a bet on a plus-money underdog being underpriced rather than on Anaheim being the better team.
San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators
San Jose (5-4-1) travels to Ottawa (7-3-0). The model projects a 3.79 to 2.67 win for the Senators. Yaroslav Askarov is in goal for the Sharks and Linus Ullmark for Ottawa. The Senators come in with the better record and the model likes them even more than the market does.
Ottawa Senators moneyline (-122, Novig): PropFinder model 68.1% to win vs 55.7% implied
Ottawa Senators
Moneyline
The model gives Ottawa a 68.1% chance to win, against 55.7% implied by the market, a 12.4-point difference. That is the biggest gap on the slate. The best price is -122 at Novig, and the model rates it a strong play.
A projected margin of more than a goal at home is the reason I am comfortable laying a modest price here.
Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins
Florida (5-3-2) is at Pittsburgh (3-6-1). The model projects a 3.74 to 3.18 Penguins win, a total of 7.07 goals. Cooper Black is expected in goal for the Panthers and Sergei Murashov for Pittsburgh. Two expected goalies and a high projected total make this the most interesting game on the board.
Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline (-108, Novig): PropFinder model 58.9% to win vs 51.1% implied
Pittsburgh Penguins
Moneyline
The model gives Pittsburgh a 58.9% chance to win, while the market implies 51.1%, a gap of 7.8 points. The best price is -108 at Novig. The model rates this a strong play, even though the Penguins have the weaker record at 3-6-1.
Near even money on a team the model sees as clear favorites is the kind of disagreement I look for.
Over 6.5 (-127, Novig): PropFinder projects 7.07 goals
Over 6.5
Total Goals
The model projects 7.07 total goals against a line of 6.5, a gap of 0.57 goals, and gives the over a 58.4% chance. The best price on the over is -127 at Novig.
Both teams are projected to score above three goals, and both goalies are expected rather than confirmed, so keep an eye on the final lineups.
Nashville Predators at Boston Bruins
Nashville (3-2-3) heads to Boston (7-2-1). The model projects a 3.55 to 2.69 win for the Bruins. Juuse Saros is expected in goal for the Predators and Jeremy Swayman for Boston. The Bruins have been one of the better teams so far and the projection backs that up.
Boston Bruins moneyline (-144, Novig): PropFinder model 64.3% to win vs 58.2% implied
Boston Bruins
Moneyline
The model gives Boston a 64.3% chance to win, against 58.2% implied by the market, a 6.2-point gap. The best price is -144 at Novig. The model rates it a strong play.
A projected margin of nearly a goal at home, with the better record, makes Boston a reasonable favorite to back even at a heavier price.
Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders
Los Angeles (1-4-2) visits the New York Islanders (5-3-1). The model projects a 2.87 to 2.40 Islanders win, a low-scoring game with a projected total of 5.44 goals. Anton Forsberg is in goal for the Kings and Ilya Sorokin for the Islanders. The Kings have struggled to start the year.
New York Islanders moneyline (-111, Novig): PropFinder model 58.6% to win vs 50.9% implied
New York Islanders
Moneyline
The model gives the Islanders a 58.6% chance to win, while the market implies 50.9%, a gap of 7.7 points. The best price is -111 at Novig. The model rates this a strong play.
With Sorokin in goal and the Kings at 1-4-2, I like the home side at close to even money.
Under 5.5 (-108, Novig): PropFinder projects 5.44 goals
Under 5.5
Total Goals
The model projects 5.44 goals against a line of 5.5, so the gap is small at 0.06 goals, but it gives the under a 56.9% chance. The best price on the under is -108 at Novig.
This is the lighter of the two plays in this game, and I would size it that way.
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars
Winnipeg (4-3-2) is at Dallas (5-3-1). The model projects a 3.31 to 2.29 win for the Stars. Stuart Skinner is expected in goal for the Jets and Jake Oettinger for Dallas. A full goal of projected separation makes Dallas the clear favorite in the model's eyes.
Dallas Stars moneyline (-186, Novig): PropFinder model 67.9% to win vs 63.9% implied
Dallas Stars
Moneyline
The model gives Dallas a 67.9% chance to win, against 63.9% implied by the market, a 4.0-point gap. The best price is -186 at Novig. The model rates it a strong play.
This is the smallest gap of the six, and the price is steep, so treat it as a smaller play than the others on this card.
Prices are the best we found at the time of writing and move before game time. Projections are PropFinder's game model, not guarantees. This page may contain affiliate links. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available: call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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