NHL Picks Today: Moneyline and Total Picks for Tuesday, October 20

Tuesday's NHL card is deep, and I am focusing on six games where PropFinder's game projections disagree clearly with the market. Each pick below compares the model's numbers with the best available price, so you can see both the reason and the cost.

Prices move through the day, so check the number before you bet. Here is the breakdown, game by game.

Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils

Colorado (5-3-1) visits New Jersey (4-4-0) in a near coin flip, with the model projecting a 3.02-2.98 game. Mackenzie Blackwood is the listed starter for the Avalanche and Jake Allen for the Devils. The model sees an evenly matched game that should not turn into a shootout.

Under 6.5 (-108, Novig): PropFinder projects 6.17 goals

TOTAL GOALSCOL@NJ· Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Under 6.5

Total Goals

Bet now-108

The model projects 6.17 total goals in Colorado at New Jersey, which sits 0.33 goals under the posted line of 6.5. That points to the under, and the best price is -111 at Novig.

With both teams projected right around three goals and neither goalie expected to be a liability, I side with the model and take the under at the half goal.

Los Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals

Los Angeles (0-4-2) heads to Washington (5-3-0), and the model projects a 3.37-2.44 Capitals win. Anton Forsberg is listed in goal for the Kings, with Logan Thompson in net for Washington. The Kings are still searching for their first win, and the projections lean heavily toward the home side.

Washington Capitals moneyline (-144, Novig): PropFinder model 66.1% to win vs 59.4% implied

MONEYLINELA@WSH· Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Washington Capitals

Moneyline

Bet now-144

The model gives Washington a 66.1% chance to win, compared with 59.4% implied by the market. That 6.8-point gap makes this a strong play in the model's eyes.

The best price on the Capitals moneyline is -144 at Novig. You pay a real premium, but the projected margin of nearly a full goal supports it.

Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders

Anaheim (4-4-0) travels to New York to face the Islanders (4-3-1), and the model projects a 3.50-2.72 home win. Lukas Dostal is confirmed in goal for the Ducks, and Ilya Sorokin is expected to start for the Islanders. The projected gap of nearly a goal is what stands out here.

New York Islanders moneyline (-144, Novig): PropFinder model 63.2% to win vs 57.8% implied

MONEYLINEANA@NYI· Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

New York Islanders

Moneyline

Bet now-144

PropFinder's model puts the Islanders' win probability at 63.2%, against 57.8% from the market. That 5.4-point edge earns a strong rating.

The best price is -144 at Novig. With Sorokin expected between the pipes and the model projecting 3.50 goals for New York, the home side looks like the better side.

San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens

San Jose (4-4-1) visits Montreal (4-3-1), and the model projects a 4.07-2.85 Canadiens win. Yaroslav Askarov is listed in goal for the Sharks and Jakub Dobes for Montreal. The model likes Montreal on the moneyline and also sees more scoring than the market.

Montreal Canadiens moneyline (-194, Novig): PropFinder model 69% to win vs 64.4% implied

MONEYLINESJ@MTL· Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Montreal Canadiens

Moneyline

Bet now-194

The model gives Montreal a 69.0% chance to win, while the market implies 64.4%. That 4.6-point edge is rated a strong play.

The best price is -194 at Novig. It is a heavy number, so the value here is thinner than in a plus-money spot, but the projected margin of 1.22 goals backs the Canadiens.

Over 6.5 (-113, Novig): PropFinder projects 7.06 goals

TOTAL GOALSSJ@MTL· Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Over 6.5

Total Goals

Bet now-113

The model projects 7.06 total goals, which is 0.56 above the posted line of 6.5. It puts the chance of the over at 58.2%.

The best price on the over 6.5 is -113 at Novig. With Montreal projected for 4.07 goals on its own, the over fits the same game script as the moneyline pick.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets

Toronto (4-4-2) visits Columbus (3-4-0), and the model projects a 3.83-2.81 Blue Jackets win. Anthony Stolarz is confirmed in goal for the Maple Leafs, and Jet Greaves is expected to start for Columbus. The model sees a bigger home edge than the market does.

Columbus Blue Jackets moneyline (-147, Novig): PropFinder model 66.4% to win vs 58.9% implied

MONEYLINETOR@CBJ· Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Columbus Blue Jackets

Moneyline

Bet now-147

The model gives Columbus a 66.4% chance to win, compared with 58.9% implied by the market. That 7.5-point gap is one of the biggest on the board and is rated a strong play.

The best price is -147 at Novig. Columbus is projected to score 3.83 goals, and that offense is the reason the model prefers the Blue Jackets.

Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues

Winnipeg (4-2-2) visits St. Louis (3-4-1), and the model projects a 3.29-2.60 Blues win. Stuart Skinner is expected in goal for the Jets, with Joel Hofer expected for St. Louis. The model likes the home team despite its slower start, and the projected margin is worth a look.

St. Louis Blues moneyline (-130, Novig): PropFinder model 62% to win vs 56.3% implied

MONEYLINEWPG@STL· Oct 20, 8:00 PM ET

St. Louis Blues

Moneyline

Bet now-130

The model gives St. Louis a 62.0% chance to win, against 56.3% implied by the market. That 5.7-point edge is rated a strong play.

The best price on the Blues is -130 at Novig, a fairly modest number for a home side projected to win by more than half a goal.

Prices are the best we found at the time of writing and move before game time. Projections are PropFinder's game model, not guarantees. This page may contain affiliate links. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available: call 1-800-GAMBLER.