NBA Prop Picks Today: Best Player Props for Friday, October 23

Friday brings a busy NBA slate, and it starts early with an afternoon game between the Bulls and the Bucks in Milwaukee before the evening tips. My picks today come from four games: Bulls at Bucks, Timberwolves at Magic, Pistons at Heat and Pelicans at Jazz.

Every pick below is ranked by PF Rating, our model's score for how strongly the numbers back a prop. It is still early in the season, so a lot of the recent form leans on last year's games, and I will flag the thin samples as we go.

Brayden Burries Over 11.5 Points (+236, DraftKings)

POINTSCHI@MIL· Oct 23, 4:00 PM ET

Brayden Burries

Over 11.5 Points

Bet now+236

Brayden Burries leads off the slate with the over on 11.5 points at +236 at DraftKings. He carries a PF Rating of 98, tied for the top mark of the day, and he has cleared the number in 1 of his last 1 games with a recent average of 12.0 points. That is a one-game sample, so treat it with care, but the plus price leaves room for that uncertainty.

The matchup is the bigger draw. Chicago ranks 1st against shooting guards, the softest defense in the league at the position, so Burries should find chances at home in Milwaukee. There is no history against the Bulls to lean on yet, but if his role holds from his first outing, the over has a clear path at a price that pays well.

Daniss Jenkins Over 2.5 Assists (-154, Betano)

ASSISTSDET@MIA· Oct 23, 8:00 PM ET

Daniss Jenkins

Over 2.5 Assists

Bet now-154

Daniss Jenkins goes over 2.5 assists at -154 at Betano for the Pistons' trip to Miami. His PF Rating of 98 matches the top of the board, and he has gone over this line in 10 of his last 10 games while averaging 3.5 assists over that stretch. He is 1 of 1 this season, though only 1 of 2 against the Heat, a small sample either way.

Miami ranks 1st against point guards, the most generous matchup in the league for the position, which fits a playmaking over with a low bar. Jenkins only needs three assists to cash, and his recent average sits comfortably above the line. The price is shorter than the first pick, but the floor is sturdier.

Bobby Portis Over 0.5 Blocks + Steals (-245, Fanatics)

BLOCKS + STEALSDET@MIA· Oct 23, 8:00 PM ET

Bobby Portis

Over 0.5 Blocks + Steals

Bet now-245

Bobby Portis is on the other side of that game, and I like the over on 0.5 blocks plus steals at -245 at Fanatics. Portis carries a PF Rating of 98 and has recorded at least one block or steal in 10 of his last 10 games, averaging 1.4 combined over that run. He is 1 of 1 so far this season.

Detroit ranks 1st against power forwards, the softest matchup at the position, which supports the call. The caution is his history with the Pistons: he has cleared this in only 5 of 9 meetings. At this price you are paying for a high floor, so this one works best as a building block rather than a standalone bet.

Wendell Carter Jr. Over 1.5 Three Points Att (-205, Fanatics)

THREE POINTS ATTMIN@ORL· Oct 23, 7:00 PM ET

Wendell Carter Jr.

Over 1.5 Three Points Att

Bet now-205

Wendell Carter Jr. gets the over on 1.5 three-point attempts at -205 at Fanatics as the Magic host the Timberwolves. His PF Rating of 97.5 is backed by a perfect run: he has topped this line in 10 of his last 10 games, averaging 2.5 attempts from deep over that stretch, and he is 1 of 1 this season.

Minnesota ranks 1st against centers, the friendliest matchup at the position, and a big man who steps out to the arc should get looks. Against the Timberwolves specifically Carter is 3 of 5, so the head-to-head is less convincing than the recent form. This is a volume prop, which means he only needs to let two fly.

Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 5.5 Field Goals Made (-170, Fanatics)

FIELD GOALS MADENOP@UTA· Oct 23, 9:30 PM ET

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Over 5.5 Field Goals Made

Bet now-170

Jaren Jackson Jr. goes over 5.5 field goals made at -170 at Fanatics as the Jazz host the Pelicans in the late window. He carries a PF Rating of 97 and has hit this number in 10 of his last 10 games, averaging 7.5 made field goals in that span, with a 1 of 1 start this season.

This has the strongest head-to-head support on the card: Jackson has cleared this line in 9 of 11 games against New Orleans. The Pelicans also rank 1st against centers, the softest matchup at the position. With his recent average sitting well above the line, the over has some cushion if his shot is a little off.

Ace Bailey Over 10.5 Field Goals Att (+145, Fanatics)

FIELD GOALS ATTNOP@UTA· Oct 23, 9:30 PM ET

Ace Bailey

Over 10.5 Field Goals Att

Bet now+145

Ace Bailey rounds out the card from the same game, with the over on 10.5 field goal attempts at +145 at Fanatics. His PF Rating of 96.5 comes with a clean run: he has gone over this line in 10 of his last 10 games and is averaging 16.2 shot attempts over that stretch, well clear of the number.

New Orleans ranks 2nd against small forwards, another soft spot, and Bailey is 2 of 2 against the Pelicans and 1 of 1 this season, though both of those samples are small. Getting a plus price on a volume line he has cleared this consistently makes this the value play of the day.

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