NBA Prop Picks Today: Best Player Props for Thursday, October 22

Thursday brings a short NBA slate with two games, and I have four player props to walk through tonight. Cleveland visits Philadelphia in the early window, and Denver heads to Oklahoma City for the late game, with two picks coming from each matchup.

The picks below are ranked by PF Rating, our model's overall grade for each prop. As always, these are opinions rather than certainties, and lines can move between now and tip-off, so check the current price before you bet.

Tyrese Maxey Over 4.5 Two-Pointers Made (-180, Fanatics)

TWO-POINTERS MADECLE@PHI· Oct 22, 7:00 PM ET

Tyrese Maxey

Over 4.5 Two-Pointers Made

Bet now-180

Tyrese Maxey leads the card with a PF Rating of 92.5 on his two-pointers made. He has cleared 4.5 in 8 of his last 10 games and is averaging 6.4 made twos over that stretch, comfortably above the number. He went over in his only game so far this season, which is too small a sample to lean on, but the longer history against this opponent helps: he is 7 of 9 against Cleveland. The matchup grades well too, with Cleveland ranking 1st of 30 in what it allows to point guards.

Jaylen Brown Over 0.5 Steals (-213, Betano)

STEALSCLE@PHI· Oct 22, 7:00 PM ET

Jaylen Brown

Over 0.5 Steals

Bet now-213

Jaylen Brown checks in with a PF Rating of 89.5 on a steals prop, needing just one. He has recorded at least one steal in 8 of his last 10 games while averaging 0.9 per game in that span. His history against Cleveland is a coin flip at 7 of 14, so the recent form is doing most of the work here, and he is 1 for 1 this season in a very small sample. Cleveland ranks 3rd of 30 in what it allows to small forwards, which supports the over.

Alex Caruso Over 5.5 Points (-210, Hard Rock)

POINTSDEN@OKC· Oct 22, 9:30 PM ET

Alex Caruso

Over 5.5 Points

Bet now-210

Alex Caruso carries a PF Rating of 84.5 on his points over in the late game against Denver. The line sits at 5.5, and he has cleared it in 9 of his last 10 games while averaging 12.8 points over that stretch. Against the Nuggets he has gone over in 9 of 13 meetings, a healthy track record, and he is 1 for 1 so far this season, though one game tells us little. Denver ranks 7th of 30 in what it allows to shooting guards.

Cason Wallace Over 2.5 Rebounds (-165, Borgata)

REBOUNDSDEN@OKC· Oct 22, 9:30 PM ET

Cason Wallace

Over 2.5 Rebounds

Bet now-165

Cason Wallace rounds out the card from the same game, also with a PF Rating of 84.5, on his rebounds over 2.5. He has gone over in 8 of his last 10 games, averaging 3.9 boards in that span. His record against Denver is more modest at 10 of 18, and his 1 for 1 start to the season is a tiny sample, so the recent form is the main case. Denver ranks 9th of 30 in what it allows to shooting guards, which keeps the matchup on our side.

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