NHL Picks Today: Moneyline and Total Picks for Wednesday, October 21

Two NHL games on the Wednesday slate have a PropFinder pick today. As always, the picks come from PropFinder's game projections compared with the market, and I only write up games where the model disagrees clearly with the price.

Tonight that means a road underdog in Buffalo, an under in the same game, and a home favorite in Ottawa that the model likes much more than the market does.

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

The Philadelphia Flyers (2-6-3) visit the Buffalo Sabres (4-3-2) with a 7:30 PM ET start. PropFinder projects a 3.19 to 2.67 Buffalo win. Dan Vladar is expected in goal for Philadelphia and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected for Buffalo.

Philadelphia Flyers moneyline (+170, Novig): PropFinder model 40.9% to win vs 37.5% implied

MONEYLINEPHI@BUF· Oct 21, 7:30 PM ET

Philadelphia Flyers

Moneyline

Bet now+170

The model gives Philadelphia a 40.9% chance to win, while the market implies 37.5%, a 3.4 point edge on the road underdog. PropFinder rates this a strong play. The best price is +170 at Novig. Buffalo is still projected as the favorite, so this is a value play on the plus money rather than a call for the upset.

Under 6 (-110, BetMGM): PropFinder projects 6.03 goals

TOTAL GOALSPHI@BUF· Oct 21, 7:30 PM ET

Under 6

Total Goals

Bet now-110

PropFinder projects 6.03 total goals against a line of 6, and the model puts the under at 57.8%. The best price is Under 6 at -110 at BetMGM. With both goalies expected to start and a projection sitting right on the number, this is a modest-edge under, so shop the line before you bet.

Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators

The Florida Panthers (5-2-2) travel to face the Ottawa Senators (6-3-0) with a 7:30 PM ET start. PropFinder projects a 3.52 to 2.73 Ottawa win. Akira Schmid is expected in goal for Florida and Linus Ullmark is expected for Ottawa.

Ottawa Senators moneyline (-102, Novig): PropFinder model 63.1% to win vs 50.7% implied

MONEYLINEFLA@OTT· Oct 21, 7:30 PM ET

Ottawa Senators

Moneyline

Bet now-102

The model gives Ottawa a 63.1% chance to win against 50.7% implied by the market, a 12.4 point edge. PropFinder rates this a strong play. The best price is -102 at Novig, essentially even money for a team the model sees as a clear favorite at home. Prices move, so check the number before you bet.

Prices are the best we found at the time of writing and move before game time. Projections are PropFinder's game model, not guarantees. This page may contain affiliate links. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available: call 1-800-GAMBLER.