NHL Picks Today: Moneyline and Total Picks for Wednesday, October 28

Three NHL games on the Wednesday, October 28 slate have a pick I like, and I'm covering each of them below. These picks come from PropFinder's game projections compared with the market, and I only write up a game where the model disagrees with the price in a clear way.

Prices move, so check the number before you bet. Everything here is an opinion based on the projections, not a sure thing.

Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals

Philadelphia visits Washington in a matchup of a 3-7-4 Flyers team and a 6-4-0 Capitals team. The model projects a 3.45 to 2.35 Washington win. Joseph Woll is the expected starter for Philadelphia, and Logan Thompson is expected in goal for Washington.

Washington Capitals moneyline (-215, theScore): PropFinder model 68.8% to win vs 66.4% implied

MONEYLINEPHI@WSH· Oct 28, 7:30 PM ET

Washington Capitals

Moneyline

Bet now-215

The model gives Washington a 68.8% chance to win, compared with 66.4% implied by the market, an edge of 2.4 points. That is a small gap, so the model rates this one a lean rather than a strong play. The best price is -215 at theScore.

The Capitals are at home, and the projected margin of more than a goal fits that. Because the price is heavy, I'd treat it as a modest play.

Under 6 (+100, BetMGM): PropFinder projects 5.96 goals

TOTAL GOALSPHI@WSH· Oct 28, 7:30 PM ET

Under 6

Total Goals

Bet now+100

The model projects 5.96 total goals against a market total of 6, and it puts the chance of the under at 59.3%. The best price is +100 at BetMGM, so you get even money on the under.

With Woll and Thompson both expected in net and Philadelphia projected for just 2.35 goals, the under at a plus price is the better value of the two Washington bets.

New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche

New Jersey (8-4-0) heads to Colorado (6-5-1). The model projects a 3.56 to 2.56 Avalanche win. Jake Allen is listed as the Devils goalie, and Mackenzie Blackwood is listed for the Avalanche.

Colorado Avalanche moneyline (-135, Novig): PropFinder model 66.9% to win vs 60.2% implied

MONEYLINENJ@COL· Oct 28, 9:00 PM ET

Colorado Avalanche

Moneyline

Bet now-135

The model gives Colorado a 66.9% chance to win, while the market implies 60.2%, an edge of 6.6 points. The model rates this a strong play. The best price is -135 at Novig.

A full goal of projected margin at home is a bigger gap than the price reflects, even with New Jersey's better record. At -135 the number is still reasonable.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken

Toronto (7-5-2) visits Seattle (7-4-1). The model projects a 3.6 to 3.2 Kraken edge, a tight game. Sergei Bobrovsky is the expected starter for the Maple Leafs, and Philipp Grubauer is expected in goal for Seattle.

Seattle Kraken moneyline (+127, Novig): PropFinder model 56.5% to win vs 48.4% implied

MONEYLINETOR@SEA· Oct 28, 10:00 PM ET

Seattle Kraken

Moneyline

Bet now+127

The model gives Seattle a 56.5% chance to win, against 48.4% implied by the market, an edge of 8.1 points. The model rates this a strong play, and the best price is +127 at Novig.

Getting a plus price on the home side of a game the model sees as better than a coin flip is the kind of gap I look for.

Over 6.5 (-113, Novig): PropFinder projects 6.95 goals

TOTAL GOALSTOR@SEA· Oct 28, 10:00 PM ET

Over 6.5

Total Goals

Bet now-113

The model projects 6.95 total goals against a market total of 6.5, a gap of 0.45 goals, and gives the over a 56.7% chance. The best price is -113 at Novig.

Both teams are projected for more than three goals, so I lean to the over.

Prices are the best we found at the time of writing and move before game time. Projections are PropFinder's game model, not guarantees. This page may contain affiliate links. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available: call 1-800-GAMBLER.