Propfinder NFL Power Rankings 2026: Final 2025–26 Model Ratings, Ranked by the Numbers

Most NFL power rankings are one writer's gut feeling in list form. Ours are the output of a model: an Elo-style team rating adjusted for quarterback play, blended with EPA per play, point differential, Pythagorean wins and strength of schedule. No vibes, no recency bias — just what the numbers said when the 2025–26 season went final.

And the final table tells a different story than the standings do. Three teams finished 14-3 — the model has them ranked #1, #4 and #10. Records lie. Ratings lie less.

Below: the model's final top 10 for 2025–26, and the three biggest arguments the data picks with the standings.

How our NFL Elo ratings work (30-second version)

Every team carries a rating (league average around 1500) that moves after each game based on result, margin and opponent quality — the same family of math behind chess Elo ratings. On top of that we track:

• QB adjustment — how many rating points the team's actual quarterback play added or subtracted versus a league-average QB.

• EPA per play (offense / defense / net) — efficiency on every snap, not just scoreboard results.

• Pythagorean wins — the win total a team's points scored and allowed should have produced. A big gap between real wins and Pythagorean wins usually means an unusual record in close games.

• Strength of schedule (SOS) — because 14-3 against the league's easiest slate is not 14-3 against its hardest.

Final 2025–26 NFL power rankings: the top 10

1. Seattle Seahawks (14-3) — Rating 1769 | QB −2.2 | Net EPA +0.19 | Point diff +11.2 | Pyth wins 13.0 | SOS #13

2. Los Angeles Rams (12-5) — Rating 1700 | QB +55.2 | Net EPA +0.21 | Point diff +10.1 | Pyth wins 12.3 | SOS #3

3. Buffalo Bills (12-5) — Rating 1667 | QB +93.6 | Net EPA +0.13 | Point diff +6.8 | Pyth wins 11.2 | SOS #30

4. New England Patriots (14-3) — Rating 1643 | QB +29.7 | Net EPA +0.18 | Point diff +10.0 | Pyth wins 12.5 | SOS #32

5. Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) — Rating 1638 | QB +36.9 | Net EPA +0.11 | Point diff +8.1 | Pyth wins 11.8 | SOS #21

6. Houston Texans (12-5) — Rating 1626 | QB −14.6 | Net EPA +0.11 | Point diff +6.4 | Pyth wins 11.5 | SOS #7

7. San Francisco 49ers (12-5) — Rating 1616 | QB +52.5 | Net EPA +0.02 | Point diff +3.9 | Pyth wins 10.1 | SOS #4

8. Detroit Lions (9-8) — Rating 1606 | QB +40.1 | Net EPA +0.07 | Point diff +4.0 | Pyth wins 10.0 | SOS #12

9. Chicago Bears (11-6) — Rating 1581 | QB +12.1 | Net EPA +0.04 | Point diff +1.5 | Pyth wins 9.1 | SOS #22

10. Denver Broncos (14-3) — Rating 1564 | QB −38.8 | Net EPA +0.09 | Point diff +5.3 | Pyth wins 11.0 | SOS #31

All columns are final 2025–26 season numbers, including the projection and outlook figures — nothing here is a forecast.

Three arguments the model picks with the standings

1. Seattle finished #1 — and their quarterback play was below average

The Seahawks ended the season at 1769, nearly 70 points clear of the field, with the league's best point differential (+11.2 per game) and an elite −0.14 defensive EPA per play. The surprise is the QB column: −2.2. The model says Seattle got slightly below league-average quarterback play and won 14 games anyway, on defense and roster depth.

That's a rare profile for a #1 team. Most seasons, the top of the final table belongs to whoever got the best quarterback play — Buffalo (+93.6) and the Rams (+55.2) fit that mold. Seattle got there the other way: the league's best defense and the deepest roster, dragging a below-average QB adjustment to 14 wins and a +307 rating gain, the biggest year-to-date climb of any team.

2. Denver went 14-3 and the model doesn't believe a word of it

Same record as Seattle. Ranked #10, 205 rating points behind. Here's the case:

• Pythagorean wins: 11.0 — three full wins below their actual total, the largest gap in the top 10

• QB adjustment: −38.8, the worst of any top-10 team by a wide margin

• Strength of schedule: #31, the second-easiest in the league

• Season rating change: just +3.7 — after 17 games, the model thinks Denver is almost exactly the team it was in Week 1

Add it up and the model's read is that Denver's 14-3 flattered the team underneath it: an 11-win points profile, a friendly schedule, and an exceptional record in close games. That's not a knock on the wins — they count all the same — but it's why a 14-3 team can sit at #10 in a table built on margins and opponents rather than results alone.

New England is a milder version of the same story: 14-3 with 12.5 Pythagorean wins against the single easiest schedule in football (#32). The difference is that the Patriots' underlying efficiency (+0.18 net EPA per play) was genuinely elite, which is why the model kept them at #4 rather than treating the record as mostly schedule.

3. Detroit at 9-8 was much better than its record

The Lions ranked #8 with a losing-adjacent record because everything under the hood said playoff team: +40.1 QB adjustment, +4.0 point differential, 10.0 Pythagorean wins — a full win better than their actual 9-8 — and a positive rating trend over the second half. Detroit is the mirror image of Denver: where the Broncos banked more wins than their play earned, the Lions banked fewer. Same table, opposite luck.

The 2025–26 season in one column: WOW movement

The week-over-week column at season's end tells you who was ascending and who was limping to the finish:

• Jacksonville (−23.2) had the ugliest final stretch of any contender — a 13-4 record built early, bleeding rating late.

• New England (−9.9) and Denver (−12.5) were both fading as the season closed — consistent with the schedule-inflation story above.

• Seattle (+9.9) and Detroit (+7.2) were the only top-10 teams still climbing at the end.

Finishing trend is part of why the model's final ordering looks so different from the standings: the table reflects how teams were actually playing at the end, not just what they banked in September.

FAQ

What are NFL Elo ratings?

Elo is a rating system that updates after every game based on the result, margin of victory and opponent strength. A team's rating is a running estimate of true quality — unlike win-loss record, it can't be inflated by a soft schedule or close-game luck.

What are Pythagorean wins in the NFL?

Pythagorean wins estimate how many games a team "should" have won based on points scored and allowed. A team that wins well above its Pythagorean expectation (like Denver's 14 actual vs. 11.0 expected in 2025–26) got there on an unusual record in close games; a team that wins below it (like Detroit's 9 vs. 10.0) played better than its record shows.

Who finished #1 in the final 2025–26 NFL power rankings?

The Seattle Seahawks, at 14-3 with a 1769 rating, the league's best point differential (+11.2 per game) and an elite defense — despite below-average quarterback play by our QB adjustment.