Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Friday, July 24

I went through all 15 games on Friday, July 24th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Byron Buxton to hit a HR --- (+251, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSATH@MIN· Jul 24, 8:10 PM ET

Byron Buxton

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+251

Matchup vs. Jacob Lopez (Athletics), Target Field, 8:10 PM ET

Buxton draws a lefty in Jacob Lopez, and that’s exactly the split you want him in. He’s one of the loudest right handed bats in the league against left handed pitching, and the batted ball quality backs it up: he’s sitting at a 57.8% hard hit rate with a 21.9% barrel rate and a max exit velocity of 107.1 this season. That’s elite raw power in a spot built for it.

Lopez leans on his four seam fastball and has been giving up the long ball at better than two per nine. When a fastball first lefty has to navigate a hitter with this kind of pull side thump, mistakes leave the yard. Buxton has five homers over his last twenty games, and this is the kind of matchup where his best swing shows up. It’s a warm night at Target Field with the wind blowing out toward left field, which only helps a right handed bat driving the ball to the pull side.

Pick 2: Francisco Alvarez to hit a HR --- (+540, Onyx Odds)

PLAYER HOME RUNSLAD@NYM· Jul 24, 7:10 PM ET

Francisco Alvarez

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+540

Matchup vs. Roki Sasaki (Dodgers), Citi Field, 7:10 PM ET

Roki Sasaki gets a lot of attention, but the home run profile is there to attack: he’s allowing better than two home runs per nine with a 15.5% barrel rate and a 22.6% home run to fly ball rate against. Good power bats have gotten to him in the air.

Alvarez fits the mold. He brings legitimate catcher pop with a 15% barrel rate, a 45% hard hit rate, and a 106.9 max exit velocity, and he’s locked in right now with two homers over his last five games. The conditions add to it: Citi Field is playing open tonight with the wind blowing out toward left field, right into the pull side power of a right handed hitter.

Pick 3: Griffin Conine to hit a HR --- (+600, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSD@MIA· Jul 24, 7:10 PM ET

Griffin Conine

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+600

Matchup vs. German Marquez (Padres), loanDepot park, 7:10 PM ET

This is the cleanest pitcher matchup on the board and the longest price of the three. German Marquez has been extremely hittable, surrendering three home runs per nine with a 25% home run to fly ball rate and a 53% hard hit rate against. He puts the ball in the air and it gets punished, and his four seamer is the pitch hitters have been sitting on.

Conine is the guy to take advantage of it. As a lefty bat facing a righty he’s in a plus split, and his power numbers this year are among the best of anyone on this list: an 18.9% barrel rate, a 56.6% hard hit rate, and a 109.3 max exit velocity. He’s swinging a hot bat too, with four homers over his last ten games and five over his last twenty. loanDepot park slightly favors pitchers, but the strength of this matchup is more than enough to look through it. At plus money this long, one swing pays for the whole card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs into a home run parlay pays +15625 across the best available prices. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday’s Results: 0-3 (-3.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 22-91-6 (-15.13U)
Total Wagered Today: Buxton (1U), Alvarez (1U), Conine (1U).
Results don’t include any combination of picks. I’m just tracking straight bets.

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