Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, August 3

I went through all 8 games on Monday, August 3rd to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Esmerlyn Valdez to hit a HR --- (+400, Betway)

PLAYER HOME RUNSPIT@MIL· Aug 3, 7:40 PM ET

Esmerlyn Valdez

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+400

Matchup vs. Brandon Sproat (Milwaukee Brewers), American Family Field, 7:40 PM ET

Brandon Sproat gets hurt by righties, a .481 SLG with a 2.29 HR/9 and a 20% HR/FB rate to that side this season, working off a sinker (35%), cutter (24%), sweeper (19%) and four seam (17%). Esmerlyn Valdez is scorching into it. Over his last 15 balls in play against righties he owns a 97.7 mph average exit velocity and a 26.7% barrel rate, and on Sproat's mix over his last 20 batted balls he has 3 home runs and 4 near misses with a 25% barrel rate, a 55% hard contact and 10 balls hit 300+ feet. He has already taken Sproat deep, a 421-foot home run off the cutter that clears 28 of 30 parks. A red hot righty bat against a homer prone righty is a strong way to open the card.

Victor Mesa Jr. to hit a HR --- (+465, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@COL· Aug 3, 8:40 PM ET

Victor Mesa Jr.

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+465

Matchup vs. Michael Lorenzen (Colorado Rockies), Coors Field, 8:40 PM ET

The next one flips to the other side of the plate and the best park in the sport. Michael Lorenzen is another righty who gets hurt by lefties, a .610 SLG with 12 home runs and a 2.01 HR/9 to that side this season, a 20.8% HR/FB rate and a 47.5% hard contact against, working off a changeup (28%), four seam (22%), cutter (15%) and sinker (15%). Victor Mesa Jr. fits it well. On that kind of mix from righties this year he owns 7 home runs and 9 near misses with a .433 SLG, an 11.6% barrel rate, a 46.4% hard contact, a 20.3% pulled in the air rate and 11 balls hit 350+ feet. The zone map lines up, with four of his seven hottest power areas in the spots Lorenzen works most, his middle zone grading as a major edge. Drop it into Coors Field, the best home run park in baseball, and a lefty with pull side lift against a homer prone righty... we'll see if he can get one to go.

Cam Smith to hit a HR --- (+830, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTOR@HOU· Aug 3, 8:10 PM ET

Cam Smith

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+830

Matchup vs. Shane Bieber (Toronto Blue Jays), Daikin Park, 8:10 PM ET

The longest price of the three is a righty bat with real history against tonight's arm. Shane Bieber is a different pitcher against righties, allowing a .627 SLG with a 2.63 HR/9 and a 40% HR/FB rate to that side this season, working primarily off a four seam (39%), cutter (18%), slider (17%) and knuckle curve (14%). Cam Smith is built to punish it. On that kind of mix from righties this year he owns 7 home runs and 13 near misses with a .468 SLG, a 16.8% barrel rate, a 50.5% hard contact, a 93.0 mph average exit velocity and 30 balls hit 300+ feet, 15 of them past 350. He has already gotten to Bieber, a 436-foot home run off the slider that would clear all 30 parks. Daikin Park plays up for power, and a righty with this kind of thump against a homer prone righty at a long price is exactly the swing to cap the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs pays around +24123 on DraftKings. Odds are subject to change.

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