Best MLB Home Run Props Today: HR Picks for Saturday, October 24

I went through the one game on the Saturday, October 24 playoff slate, Tampa Bay at Milwaukee, looking for the best anytime home run props on the board. With a single game, all three picks come from the same ballpark, and that is fine when the matchup and the prices both line up.

The picks are ranked by PropFinder's PF Rating for home runs, which weighs recent exit velocity and barrel rate and how each hitter matches up with the opposing pitcher's mix. Here are the top three.

Junior Caminero to hit a HR (+475, Bally Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@MIL· Oct 24, 8:00 PM ET

Junior Caminero

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Best price +475 at Bally Bet; market median +420 across 11 books

Bet now+475

Junior Caminero has 11 home runs in 165 plate appearances this season, backed by a .272 ISO, a .550 slugging percentage, a 17.4% barrel rate, a 51.2% hard-hit rate and a 94.0 mph average exit velocity. The recent form is just as loud: over his last 15 he is averaging 91.18 mph off the bat with a 20% barrel rate. He also has 16 near home runs on the year, so the power is real and the results have room to catch up.

Milwaukee sends right-hander Logan Henderson, who leans heavily on four-seam fastballs and cutters, and Caminero's damage against right-handers comes mostly against fastballs. American Family Field is hitter-friendly with a home run factor of 1.059. At +475 at Bally Bet against a median of +420 across 11 books, you are getting a better price than the market. A PF Rating of 56.6 makes him the top home run bet on the slate.

Christian Yelich to hit a HR (+953, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@MIL· Oct 24, 8:00 PM ET

Christian Yelich

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Best price +953 at Novig; market median +900 across 11 books

Bet now+953

Christian Yelich has 6 home runs in 244 plate appearances this season with a .159 ISO, a .467 slugging percentage, a 10.2% barrel rate, a 46.4% hard-hit rate and a 90.2 mph average exit velocity. He is a steadier hitter than a pure slugger, but his last 15 shows a 93.58 mph average exit velocity, and he has 16 near home runs, so the contact quality has been there even if the barrel rate has dipped.

Tampa Bay starts right-hander Drew Rasmussen, who splits his work between cutters and four-seam fastballs against lefties, and fastballs are where Yelich does his best work against right-handers. He gets the home park, which is hitter-friendly at a 1.059 home run factor. The price is the draw: +953 at Novig compared with a +900 median across 11 books. With a PF Rating of 40.7, he is a longshot with a real path to a homer.

Victor Mesa Jr to hit a HR (+641, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@MIL· Oct 24, 8:00 PM ET

Victor Mesa Jr

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Best price +641 at Novig; market median +586 across 11 books

Bet now+641

Victor Mesa Jr has 8 home runs in 126 plate appearances this season with a .259 ISO, a .482 slugging percentage, a 14.5% barrel rate, a 49.4% hard-hit rate and an 89.4 mph average exit velocity. His last 15 shows a 91.95 mph average exit velocity, though he has not barreled a ball in that stretch. The season-long power profile is the reason he rates well, with 12 near home runs adding to the case.

The matchup is with Logan Henderson, a right-hander who throws changeups and four-seam fastballs to left-handed hitters, and Mesa's best power against right-handers comes on fastballs. Milwaukee's park is hitter-friendly, with a home run factor of 1.059. At +641 at Novig against a +586 median across 11 books, the price is a step above the market. With a PF Rating of 40.7, he is a speculative play, but the upside is hard to ignore.

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