Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Sunday, August 2

I went through all 15 games on Sunday, August 2nd to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Junior Caminero to hit a HR --- (+320, FanDuel)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCWS@TB· Aug 2, 1:40 PM ET

Junior Caminero

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+320

Matchup vs. Anthony Kay (Chicago White Sox), Tropicana Field, 1:40 PM ET

Anthony Kay is a left-hander who gets punished by right-handed bats, a .467 SLG with 12 home runs and a 1.48 HR/9 to that side, a 20% home-run-per-fly-ball rate and a 10.8% barrel rate allowed, working off a mix of four-seams (26%), changeups (20%), sweepers (19%) and cutters (18%). Junior Caminero is a clean fit. On that kind of mix from lefties this season he is slugging .576 with a .341 average, 5 home runs and 6 near-misses, a 96.3 mph average exit velocity, a 52.8% hard-hit rate and 10 balls hit 350-plus feet. The zone map backs it up, with five of his seven hottest power areas falling in the spots Kay works most, his up-and-in and middle zones grading as major edges. A right-handed power bat against a homer-prone lefty is the shortest price on the card and the cleanest swing.

Alec Burleson to hit a HR --- (+370, FanDuel)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSTL@TOR· Aug 2, 1:37 PM ET

Alec Burleson

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+370

Matchup vs. Max Scherzer (Toronto Blue Jays), Rogers Centre, 1:37 PM ET

Another arm the numbers say to attack, this time a right-hander getting tagged by lefties. Max Scherzer has been very hittable to left-handed hitters this year, a .638 SLG with 6 home runs, a 3.38 HR/9 and a 27.8% home-run-per-fly-ball rate, leaning on his four-seam (47%), changeup (21%), curveball (17%) and slider (15%). Alec Burleson is the bat to punish it. On that mix this season he owns 13 home runs and 23 near-misses with a .543 SLG, a 50.8% hard-hit rate, a 19.5% pulled-in-the-air rate and 30 balls hit 350-plus feet. The zone map agrees, five of his seven hottest power areas fall where Scherzer lives, with up-and-in and middle grading as his biggest edges. A locked-in lefty against a homer-prone right-hander is a strong middle leg.

Taylor Trammell to hit a HR --- (+575, FanDuel)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTEX@HOU· Aug 2, 2:10 PM ET

Taylor Trammell

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+575

Matchup vs. Kumar Rocker (Texas Rangers), Daikin Park, 2:10 PM ET

The longest price of the three is also the hottest bat. Kumar Rocker has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters, a .458 SLG with 9 home runs and a 1.47 HR/9 to that side, a 48.2% hard-hit rate against, working mostly off his slider (38%), sinker (20%), four-seam (16%) and cutter (16%). Taylor Trammell is scorching into it. Over his last 15 balls in play against right-handers he owns a 97.1 mph average exit velocity and a 40% barrel rate, including home runs of 425 and 412 feet in the last week. On Rocker's mix this season he has 5 home runs and 8 near-misses with a .532 SLG, a 58.7% hard-hit rate, a 21.7% barrel rate and 11 balls hit 350-plus feet. Daikin Park plays up for power, and a red-hot lefty at a long price against a homer-prone fastball-and-slider arm is exactly the swing you take when the number runs to +575.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +13225 at Caesars Sportsbook. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+1.35U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 28-110-8 (-12.43U)
Total Wagered Today: Junior Caminero (1U), Alec Burleson (1U), Taylor Trammell (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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