MLB Picks Today: Moneyline and Total Picks for Friday, October 23

I'm covering one game on tonight's MLB slate, a playoff matchup between Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. These picks come from PropFinder's game projections compared with the market, and I only highlight a game where the model disagrees clearly with the price.

PropFinder's MLB model sits at 1322-1140 all-time and 2-0 over the last five days, and it sees value on both the moneyline and the total in this one.

Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers

The Tampa Bay Rays visit the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. PropFinder's projection has Milwaukee winning 4.92 to 3.82, which puts the projected total at 8.74 runs. Nick Martinez, a right-hander, starts for Tampa Bay, and Jacob Misiorowski, also a right-hander, takes the ball for Milwaukee.

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline (+167, Novig): PropFinder model 44.5% to win vs 36.8% implied

MONEYLINETB@MIL· Oct 23, 8:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay Rays

Moneyline

Bet now+167

The model gives Tampa Bay a 44.5% chance to win, while the market implies just 36.8%. That is a 7.7-point edge on the Rays, even though the projection still has Milwaukee slightly ahead on the scoreboard.

The best price on Tampa Bay is +167 at Novig. At that number the Rays are the underdog the model likes most on the board tonight.

Over 6.5 (-104, Novig): PropFinder projects 8.74 runs

TOTAL RUNSTB@MIL· Oct 23, 8:00 PM ET

Over 6.5

Total Runs

Bet now-104

The model projects 8.74 runs, well above the posted total of 6.5, a gap of 2.24 runs. Both lineups project to score enough that the number looks low against the model's view.

The best price on the over 6.5 is -104 at Novig. Prices move, so check the line before you bet.

Prices are the best we found at the time of writing and move before game time. Projections are PropFinder's game model, not guarantees. This page may contain affiliate links. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available: call 1-800-GAMBLER.