Best MLB Home Run Props Today: HR Picks for Friday, October 23

I went through the one game on the Friday, October 23 playoff slate, Tampa Bay at Milwaukee, looking for the best anytime home run props on the board.

The picks are ranked by PropFinder's PF Rating for home runs, which weighs recent exit velocity and barrel rate along with how each hitter matches up with the opposing pitcher's mix. Here are the three highest-rated hitters, with the best price I found for each.

Junior Caminero to hit a HR (+590, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@MIL· Oct 23, 8:00 PM ET

Junior Caminero

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Best price +590 at Novig; market median +533 across 11 books

Bet now+590

Junior Caminero has 17 home runs in 234 plate appearances this season, with an ISO of .275, a 15.6% barrel rate, a 54.2% hard-hit rate and a 93.8 mph average exit velocity. The recent numbers are even louder: over his last 15 he is averaging 93.42 mph off the bat with a 20% barrel rate, so the power has not cooled. He also has 24 near home runs, a sign that more of his hard contact has been a few feet from leaving the yard.

Caminero faces Jacob Misiorowski, a right-hander who leans on fastballs and sliders, and Caminero's damage against those pitches grades out well in his PF Rating of 68.8. American Family Field is hitter-friendly, with a home run factor of 1.059. The best price is +590 at Novig against a median of +533 across 11 books. The top rating on the slate, a hot recent barrel rate and a price above the market median make Caminero the strongest home run case here.

Yandy Diaz to hit a HR (+1000, Bally Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@MIL· Oct 23, 8:00 PM ET

Yandy Diaz

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Best price +1000 at Bally Bet; market median +970 across 11 books

Bet now+1000

Yandy Diaz brings less raw power than the top pick, with 7 home runs in 256 plate appearances, an ISO of .125 and an 8.9% barrel rate. The contact quality is still solid, with a 44.7% hard-hit rate and a 90.3 mph average exit velocity, and he is averaging 91.42 mph over his last 15 games. His recent barrel rate of 6.67% is the soft spot, so this is more a matchup and price play than a pure power play.

Diaz also faces Misiorowski, whose fastball and slider mix is the same one that helped lift Caminero, and Diaz's numbers against those pitches support a PF Rating of 43.4. The park is hitter-friendly at a 1.059 home run factor. The best price is +1000 at Bally Bet against a median of +970 across 11 books. It is a longer shot, but a good matchup in a friendly park at a double-digit price is a reasonable swing.

Jackson Chourio to hit a HR (+590, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@MIL· Oct 23, 8:00 PM ET

Jackson Chourio

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Best price +590 at Novig; market median +525 across 11 books

Bet now+590

Jackson Chourio has 11 home runs in 264 plate appearances with an ISO of .192, a 10.4% barrel rate, a 52.5% hard-hit rate and a 93.2 mph average exit velocity. He is trending up too: over his last 15 he is at 94.02 mph with a 13.33% barrel rate. That recent contact quality is a big part of why he lands third in the PF Rating at 43.3, and his 19 near home runs suggest there is more power in the tank.

Milwaukee's Chourio gets Tampa Bay starter Nick Martinez, a right-hander who works with sinkers, cutters and changeups. The pitch-mix inputs are mixed, so his case rests on the recent exit velocity and barrels more than the matchup. At home in American Family Field, which is hitter-friendly at 1.059, the best price is +590 at Novig against a median of +525 across 11 books. A hot bat at home at a price above the market is enough for me.

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