Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Thursday, June 11

I went through all 8 games on Thursday, June 11th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Kody Clemens to hit a HR --- (+332, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIN@DET· Jun 11, 1:10 PM ET

Kody Clemens

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+332

Matchup vs Keider Montero (Tigers), Comerica Park, 1:10PM EST

Clemens tops my list for today's slate due to his matchup. In his last two seasons, Montero has given up 24 home runs, 16 of which came against left-handed batters. Montero's mix consists primarily of a Four-Seamer and Change-Up, accounting for nearly 65% of his pitches. In his last 25 plate appearances, Kody has a 0.391 ISO and an average hit distance of 274.4 ft, showing his raw power vs. right-handed pitching.

Pick 2: Hunter Goodman to hit a HR --- (+332, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCHC@COL· Jun 11, 3:10 PM ET

Hunter Goodman

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+308

Matchup vs Edward Cabrera (Cubs), Coors Field, 3:10PM EST

Definitely a "chalky" pick, but it's so hard to bet against Goodman right now. Goodman's five homers in his last eight games and Cabrera giving up 3 home runs to righties in his last start make a matchup that is impossible to pass up on.

Pick 3: Kyle Stowers to hit a HR --- (+400, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSARI@MIA· Jun 11, 1:10 PM ET

Kyle Stowers

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+400

Matchup vs Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks), loanDepot Park, 1:10PM EST

It's awesome to see Stowers back to his '25 form coming off a rough hamstring injury. This season, Kelly has given up 13 home runs, 10 of which have come against left-handed hitters. In his last 15 plate appearances against Kelly's mix, Stowers has a 33.33% pull barrel, 44.44% barrel, 55.6% hard hit rate, 21.7% blast and even an average hit distance of 370 ft. With a good previous matchup vs. Kelly and the previously stated facts, I like Stowers to go yard this evening.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +8046 at DraftKings. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-2.28U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 4-10-1 (+3.93U)
Total Wagered Today: Clemens (0.90U), Goodman (0.96U), Stowers (0.83U)
TOTAL: 2.70U
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets. 

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