Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Thursday, June 11
I went through all 8 games on Thursday, June 11th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Pick 1: Kody Clemens to hit a HR --- (+332, DraftKings)
MIN@
DET· Jun 11, 1:10 PM ET
Kody Clemens
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs Keider Montero (Tigers), Comerica Park, 1:10PM EST
Clemens tops my list for today's slate due to his matchup. In his last two seasons, Montero has given up 24 home runs, 16 of which came against left-handed batters. Montero's mix consists primarily of a Four-Seamer and Change-Up, accounting for nearly 65% of his pitches. In his last 25 plate appearances, Kody has a 0.391 ISO and an average hit distance of 274.4 ft, showing his raw power vs. right-handed pitching.
Pick 2: Hunter Goodman to hit a HR --- (+332, DraftKings)
CHC@
COL· Jun 11, 3:10 PM ET
Hunter Goodman
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs Edward Cabrera (Cubs), Coors Field, 3:10PM EST
Definitely a "chalky" pick, but it's so hard to bet against Goodman right now. Goodman's five homers in his last eight games and Cabrera giving up 3 home runs to righties in his last start make a matchup that is impossible to pass up on.
Pick 3: Kyle Stowers to hit a HR --- (+400, Hard Rock Bet)
ARI@
MIA· Jun 11, 1:10 PM ET
Kyle Stowers
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks), loanDepot Park, 1:10PM EST
It's awesome to see Stowers back to his '25 form coming off a rough hamstring injury. This season, Kelly has given up 13 home runs, 10 of which have come against left-handed hitters. In his last 15 plate appearances against Kelly's mix, Stowers has a 33.33% pull barrel, 44.44% barrel, 55.6% hard hit rate, 21.7% blast and even an average hit distance of 370 ft. With a good previous matchup vs. Kelly and the previously stated facts, I like Stowers to go yard this evening.
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HR Prop Parlay
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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