Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Friday, June 12
I went through all 15 games on Friday, June 12th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Pick 1: Jake Bauers to hit a HR --- (+375, Hard Rock Bet)
PHI@
MIL· Jun 12, 7:40 PM ET
Jake Bauers
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs Andrew Painter (Phillies), American Family Field, 7:40PM EST
Bauers has been hot, hitting 4 home runs over his last ten games. Ten of his 12 home runs this season have been off a righty, which is highly beneficial for our slugger's odds today. Painter has struggled significantly to avoid heavy left-handed contact, giving up 4 home runs over just 14.2 IP, along with a 37% hard hit rate, and a 35.2% fly ball rate.
Pick 2: Spencer Steer to hit a HR --- (+461, DraftKings)
ARI@
CIN· Jun 12, 7:15 PM ET
Spencer Steer
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs Eduardo Rodriguez (Diamondbacks), Great American Ball Park, 7:15PM EST
Over his last two seasons, Rodriguez has struggled vs. right-handed hitters. He has given up 32 total home runs, 27 of which have come against right-handers. Over his last 10 plate appearances, Steer has accumulated a 30% barrel, 3 home runs and an average hit distance of 321 ft. This data, along with a favorable home run hitting park (especially to right-handed hitters), and wind blowing out makes Steer my second favorite home run pick on today's massive Friday slate.
Pick 3: Jac Caglianone to hit a HR --- (+425, Hard Rock Bet)
HOU@
KC· Jun 12, 8:10 PM ET
Jac Caglianone
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs Tatsuya Imai (Astros), Kauffman Stadium, 8:10PM EST
In just 18.1 IP against left-handed hitters, Imai has given up four home runs, a 54.9% hard-hit rate, and a 30.8% HR/FB rate. To match that, Jac has a 20%+ season barrel rate to his top two pitches, including a 15%+ pull barrel rate. From a pitch-mix perspective, this is as green of a light as you can get.
Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-2.7U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 4-7-1 (+3.52U)
Total Wagered Today: Bauers (0.87U), Steer (0.65U), Caglianone (0.71U)
TOTAL: 2.23U
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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