Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Thursday, June 4

There aren't many games tonight, but there are several good opportunities for some guys to go yard. Using Propfinder's data tool, I found a combination of vulnerable pitchers, hitters stats, and weather/park factors. Below are my top three home run props for today.

Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez to hit a HR — (+279, DraftKings)
Matchup vs Jared Jones (Pirates), Daikin Park, 8:10 PM EST

In a home game against the Pirates, the hottest hitter in baseball is at the top of our list for a few reasons. The first being his incredible matchup against the Pirates starter, Jared Jones. Jones has had a rough start to his 2026 campaign giving up 2 home runs in 4.1 IP, both to lefties. Over his last 15 BBE vs Jones' pitch mix, Alvarez has amassed an astounding 33.3% barrel with 2 home runs. On top of this, against righties throughout the year he has put up video-game numbers, posting a .310 BA, .620 SLG, & .439 OBP.

Along with the pitcher/hitter statistics, Daikin park has been known to be a home run heavy stadium allowing a 10% home run increase to lefty hitters compared to an average MLB park.

Pick 2: Ian Happ to hit a HR — (+342, DraftKings)
Matchup vs J.T. Ginn (Athletics), Wrigley Field, 8:05 PM EST

Happ is second on our list due to several factors. To start, J.T. Ginn is known to be susceptible to left handed batters giving up 6 home runs on the year with 4 of those coming against lefties. Strong wind blowing out and Happ's 15.2% season barrel against righties makes for a perfect combo for a home run.

Pick 3: Colby Thomas to hit a HR — (+368, DraftKings)
Matchup vs Shota Imanaga (Cubs), Wrigley Field, 8:05 PM EST

Thomas is primed for a good matchup against Shota tonight. Shota has given up 13 home runs this season, 9 of which have come against righties. 5 of these have come off his most thrown pitch, the heater. Over the season, Thomas has accrued a 33.3% barrel vs lefty 4 seamers, making this an incredible matchup.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +7740 at DraftKings. High-variance by nature — stake accordingly.

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