Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, June 9

I went through all 15 games on Tuesday, June 9th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a HR --- (+279, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCHC@COL· Jun 9, 8:40 PM ET

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+279

Matchup vs Sugano (Rockies), Coors Field, 8:40PM EST

This is a prime matchup for a hot PCA. He has hit 4 homers in his last 15 BBE posting a 40% barrel rate in this stretch, with a perfect 40% pull barrel. With a matchup against Sugano who gives up the most homers to left-handed hitters in this slate (3.97 HR/9 in his L5 starts), wind blowing OUT at 10-20 MPH, and high elevation in Colorado, it's safe to say PCA has a strong chance to go yard in this game. I wouldn't be surprised if his odds dropped closer to game time.

Barrel and Statcast metrics are shown below:

Before I show Sugano's Pitch mix, I'd like to jump into our next pick.

Pick 2: Ian Happ to hit a HR --- (+325, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCHC@COL· Jun 9, 8:40 PM ET

Ian Happ

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+325

As I previously mentioned, in his L5 starts, Sugano has given up a 3.97 HR/9 to left-handed batters. This means if he were to pitch an entire game to lefties, he would on average give up 3.97 homers. The books have Sugano projected to throw 14.5 outs (around 5 innings). Using both of these metrics, we are able to assume Sugano will give up 2 homers to left-handers in this outing. It just comes down to getting the right batters. This is where Happ comes in. Similar to PCA, Happ has been hot recently, showcasing a 20% barrel and 20% (perfect) pull barrel. Along with this, he has a strong Zone match-up vs Sugano, FB%, Pull%, HH%, etc.

Pitch Mix as well as Zone Comparison match-ups are shown below:

Pick 3: Juan Soto to hit a HR --- (+372, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSTL@NYM· Jun 9, 7:10 PM ET

Juan Soto

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+372

Matchup vs Dustin May (Cardinals), Citi Field, 7:10PM EST

Against May's top two pitches, Soto has a 26.5% barrel along with a 14.7% pull barrel on the season. Over the last two seasons, May has struggled vs lefties giving up a 1.52 HR/9 along with a 21% HR/FB rate.

Over his Last 15 PA vs lefties on the Four-Seam or cutter, Soto hasn't struck out, and has hit 3 home runs.

Yesterday's Results: 0-2-1 (-1.6U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 4-7-1 (+6.22U)

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +5620 at DraftKings. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.


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