Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, August 5

I went through all 15 games on Wednesday, August 5th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Jonathan Aranda to hit a HR --- (+288, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@COL· Aug 5, 3:10 PM ET

Jonathan Aranda

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+288

Matchup vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (Rockies), Coors Field, 3:10 PM ET

Aranda leads off the card, and it starts with where the game is played and who is on the mound. Tomoyuki Sugano has been homer-prone all season and it gets worse against left-handed bats, where he has allowed a .575 SLG, a .373 wOBA and a 2.53 HR/9, with 15 of the 21 home runs he has given up coming from the left side. Aranda is exactly that kind of lefty bat, slugging .490 with a .191 ISO and 13 home runs against right-handers this year, and the zone chart lines up cleanly. Four of Sugano's seven most-used zones are ones Aranda punishes, and his biggest power scores sit down-and-in and middle, right where Sugano lives. He already owns a home run off Sugano in a small career look, and he is barreling the ball lately, including a 432-foot shot at 108 mph off a cutter. Do that in Coors Field, the best home run park in baseball and an open-air yard, and at +288 he is the safest ceiling on the board.

Seiya Suzuki to hit a HR --- (+332, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSLAD@CHC· Aug 5, 2:20 PM ET

Seiya Suzuki

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+332

Matchup vs. Eric Lauer (Dodgers), Wrigley Field, 2:20 PM ET

Next up is another arm with a fastball problem, this time from the left side. Eric Lauer throws his four-seam 43.6% of the time and it has been slugged to a .495 clip with 9 home runs allowed, and it is not just the heater, his cutter (.556 SLG, 3 HR) and curveball (.567 SLG, 3 HR) have both been squared up as well. Suzuki gets the right-on-left edge and the recent power to cash it in, with 4 home runs and 5 near-misses over his last 25 batted balls, 6 of them hit 350 feet or more, a 44% hard-hit rate and a 40% pull-air rate. A right-handed slugger with pull-side loft against a lefty who leaves fastballs over the plate is a live one, and at +332 there is plenty to like.

Christian Walker to hit a HR --- (+492, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTOR@HOU· Aug 5, 2:10 PM ET

Christian Walker

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+492

Matchup vs. Jameson Taillon (Blue Jays), Daikin Park, 2:10 PM ET

The longest price of the three is also the most straightforward, a hot bat meeting the pitch it hits best. Over his last 15 batted balls against right-handers, Walker is barreling 26.7% of them, and the recent damage is loud, a 403-foot fly at 104 mph off a four-seam, a 406-foot double at 103 mph off another, and a 351-foot home run. Jameson Taillon works mostly off his sweeper, cutter and four-seam to righties, and it is the four-seam Walker keeps squaring up. He does not need a platoon edge here, just the same swing he has had going, and at +492 he is the best price on the card and the value swing to round it out.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +9823 at DraftKings. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 28-119-8 (-21.43U)
Total Wagered Today: Jonathan Aranda (1U), Seiya Suzuki (1U), Christian Walker (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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