Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Thursday, August 6

I went through all 11 games on Thursday, August 6th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Wilyer Abreu to hit a HR --- (+365, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCWS@BOS· Aug 6, 7:10 PM ET

Wilyer Abreu

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+365

Matchup vs. Luis Castillo (White Sox), Fenway Park, 7:10 PM ET

Abreu is next on a scorching bat meeting a hittable arm. Over his last 10 batted balls he is barreling 30% of them with a 93.8 average exit velocity, and the recent damage is loud, with home runs of 390 feet off a slider and other balls crushed at 109-plus off the bat. Luis Castillo has left too much over the plate this year, his four-seam slugging .537 with 6 home runs and his slider slugging .661 with 5 more, and Abreu gets the left-on-right edge to attack both. A red-hot lefty with this kind of exit velo against a fastball and slider that keep getting squared up is a live one.

Gunnar Henderson to hit a HR --- (+376, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSLAA@BAL· Aug 6, 12:35 PM ET

Gunnar Henderson

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+376

Matchup vs. Ryan Johnson (Angels), Oriole Park at Camden Yards, 12:35 PM ET

Henderson leads off the card, and it starts with how hittable Ryan Johnson has been. To left-handed bats he leans on a splitter and a sinker, and both have been punished, with the sinker slugging a 1.167 mark and the sweeper he mixes in getting hit for a 1.000 slug. Henderson is exactly the lefty bat to keep punishing it, an elite power hitter whose strongest zones sit middle and down, right where Johnson lives, and against this specific arsenal his spray chart shows a 22% home run rate with balls carrying 373 to 400-plus feet to the pull side. Put that in Camden Yards, one of the better home run parks in baseball with the wind blowing out, and this is the cleanest spot on the board.

J.T. Realmuto to hit a HR --- (+567, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSWSH@PHI· Aug 6, 6:05 PM ET

J.T. Realmuto

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+567

Matchup vs. Miles Mikolas (Nationals), Citizens Bank Park, 6:05 PM ET

The longest price of the three is also the softest matchup. Miles Mikolas has been a home run machine all season, a 2.17 HR/9 with 26 long balls allowed, and it gets worse against right-handed bats where he carries a 2.47 HR/9 and a 28.3% home run per fly ball rate. Realmuto fits it, a right-handed bat whose spray against Mikolas's mix pulls to left field with a 12% home run rate and carry into the 374 to 401-foot range. Add Citizens Bank Park, a strong home run park, with the wind blowing out around 9 mph, and the best price on the card comes with the best pitcher matchup to attack.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +14663 at Novig. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 28-122-8 (-24.43U)
Total Wagered Today: Wilyer Abreu (1U), Gunnar Henderson (1U), J.T. Realmuto (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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