This is an archived edition. For the latest picks see MLB Picks Today, updated every game day.
MLB Picks Today: Moneyline and Total Picks for Saturday, October 17
Every prop on today's slate, ranked live: MLB Player Props Today
Postseason coverage, game by game: MLB Playoff Predictions
The picks
1 pick
Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Odds may have moved since publishing.
Today's MLB slate has just one game with a pick, so this is a short card. As always, the picks come from PropFinder's game projections compared with the market, and I only write up a game when the model disagrees with the number clearly.
The model has a 1319-1140 all-time record, and tonight it likes the over in Tampa Bay at Cleveland.
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay visits Cleveland tonight, with right-hander Nick Martinez starting for the Rays and right-hander Shawn Armstrong going for the Guardians. PropFinder's projection has the Rays scoring 4.33 runs and the Guardians 3.52, which makes this close to a coin flip, with Cleveland given a 49.1% chance to win.
Over 6.5 (-106, Novig): PropFinder projects 7.85 runs
Over 6.5
Total Runs
The market has this game at 6.5 runs, but the model projects 7.85 total runs, a gap of 1.35 runs. That is a big difference on a baseball total.
The best price is -106 on Over 6.5 at Novig. With the model this far above the market number, the over looks underpriced. Prices move, so check the line before you bet.
Prices are the best we found at the time of writing and move before game time. Projections are PropFinder's game model, not guarantees. This page may contain affiliate links. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available: call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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