This is an archived edition. For the latest picks see NHL Picks Today, updated every game day.
NHL Picks Today: Moneyline and Total Picks for Monday, October 19
Every prop on today's slate, ranked live: NHL Player Props Today
The picks
6 picks
Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Odds may have moved since publishing.
Four NHL games on the card today have a pick from PropFinder's game projections, and I'm covering all of them. Each one comes from the model's win probabilities and projected totals compared with the market, and I only use a game when the model clearly disagrees with the price.
There are three moneyline plays the model rates as strong and three totals, so we have a mix of underdog value and goal-total angles. As always, picks are opinions and prices move.
Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers
The Colorado Avalanche (5-2-1) visit the Philadelphia Flyers (1-6-3). The model projects a 3.01 to 2.68 Colorado win, a projected total of 5.86 goals. Mackenzie Blackwood is the expected goalie for Colorado and Dan Vladar is expected for Philadelphia.
Philadelphia Flyers moneyline (+217, Novig): PropFinder model 44.2% to win vs 32.5% implied
Philadelphia Flyers
Moneyline
The model gives the Flyers a 44.2% chance to win, while the market implies just 32.5%. That is an 11.7 point edge, and the model rates it a strong play. Philadelphia's record is rough, but the price looks too long for a game the model sees as fairly close.
The best price is +217 at Novig.
Under 6 (-102, BetMGM): PropFinder projects 5.86 goals
Under 6
Total Goals
The model projects 5.86 goals against a market total of 6, a gap of 0.14 goals, but it puts the Under at 60.7% likely. Both goalies are expected to start, and the projected scoring sits below the line.
The best price is Under 6 at -102 at BetMGM.
Anaheim Ducks at New York Rangers
The Anaheim Ducks (4-3-0) visit the New York Rangers (6-3-1). The model projects a 3.45 to 2.83 Rangers win, a projected total of 6.43 goals. Lukas Dostal is the expected goalie for Anaheim and Dylan Garand is expected for New York.
New York Rangers moneyline (-130, Novig): PropFinder model 60.3% to win vs 56.1% implied
New York Rangers
Moneyline
The model gives the Rangers a 60.3% chance to win, while the market implies 56.1%. That is a 4.2 point edge, and the model rates it a strong play. New York has the better record and the higher projected goal total in this matchup.
The best price is -130 at Novig.
San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs
The San Jose Sharks (4-3-1) visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (3-4-2). The model projects a 3.82 to 3.28 Toronto win, a projected total of 7.25 goals. Sergei Bobrovsky is listed in goal for Toronto and Yaroslav Askarov for San Jose.
Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline (-130, Novig): PropFinder model 58.6% to win vs 55.7% implied
Toronto Maple Leafs
Moneyline
The model gives Toronto a 58.6% chance to win, while the market implies 55.7%. That is a 2.8 point edge, and the model rates it a strong play, though the edge is smaller than on the other sides today.
The best price is -130 at Novig.
Over 6.5 (-127, Novig): PropFinder projects 7.25 goals
Over 6.5
Total Goals
The model projects 7.25 goals against a market total of 6.5, a gap of 0.75 goals, and puts the Over at 61.1% likely. Both teams are projected to score at a healthy clip.
The best price is Over 6.5 at -127 at Novig.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Utah Mammoth
The Pittsburgh Penguins (3-5-1) visit the Utah Mammoth (6-3-0). The model projects a 3.76 to 3.08 Utah win, a projected total of 6.99 goals. Arturs Silovs is the expected goalie for Pittsburgh and Karel Vejmelka is expected for Utah.
Over 6.5 (-120, Novig): PropFinder projects 6.99 goals
Over 6.5
Total Goals
The model projects 6.99 goals against a market total of 6.5, a gap of 0.49 goals, and puts the Over at 57.2% likely. Utah is projected for 3.76 goals on its own, which does most of the work.
The best price is Over 6.5 at -120 at Novig.
Prices are the best we found at the time of writing and move before game time. Projections are PropFinder's game model, not guarantees. This page may contain affiliate links. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available: call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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