Best MLB Home Run Props Today: HR Picks for Monday, October 19

I went through the 1 game on Monday, October 19, a playoff slate with Cleveland visiting Tampa Bay, to find the best anytime home run props on the board.

The picks are ranked by PropFinder's PF Rating for home runs, which weighs recent exit velocity and barrel rate along with how each hitter matches up with the pitcher's mix. Here are the top three.

Junior Caminero to hit a HR (+426, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCLE@TB· Oct 19, 8:08 PM ET

Junior Caminero

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+426

Junior Caminero has homered in 38 of 170 games this season, and he comes in with a strong recent profile. Over his last 15 games he is averaging 93.62 mph exit velocity with a 13.33% barrel rate. That kind of contact quality is the foundation of a PF Rating of 72.1, the highest on the board for this playoff slate.

The matchup grades out even better than the form. Caminero's isolated power against right-handed pitching is led by sinkers (21.32%), four-seamers (21.03%) and sliders (17.51%), which maxes out the pitch-mix input in his rating. He is at home in Tropicana Field, a hitter-friendly park with a home run factor of 1.068. Novig has him at +426, ahead of a median of +390 across 11 books, and that extra price on the top-rated bat is the case for the bet.

Chase DeLauter to hit a HR (+1040, FanDuel)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCLE@TB· Oct 19, 8:08 PM ET

Chase DeLauter

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+1040

Chase DeLauter has nine home runs in 220 plate appearances with a .199 ISO and a 9.9% barrel rate. His 48.5% hard-hit rate and 92.6 mph average exit velocity back that up, and his last 15 games are even louder at 92.15 mph with a 13.33% barrel rate. The left-handed bat has also put 14 balls in the near-home-run category, so the power is showing up in the underlying contact. That adds up to a PF Rating of 60.

He faces Freddy Peralta, a right-hander who leans on the four-seam fastball (62.7%) and changeup (23.81%) against lefties. DeLauter's own numbers against right-handed pitching are strongest versus fastballs, which lines up with that mix. Tropicana Field is hitter-friendly at a 1.068 home run factor. FanDuel offers +1040 against a median of +900 across 11 books, so the best price is well above the market, and a lefty bat built to punish fastballs at that number is worth a look.

Yandy Diaz to hit a HR (+733, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCLE@TB· Oct 19, 8:08 PM ET

Yandy Diaz

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+733

Yandy Diaz has homered in 22 of 162 games this season and 3 of 30 against Cleveland. His recent contact is the draw: over the last 15 games he is at 93.91 mph average exit velocity with a 13.33% barrel rate. Those numbers produce a PF Rating of 57.2, third on the slate.

Against right-handed pitching, Diaz's power shows up on four-seam fastballs (32.06%), sinkers (24.71%) and sliders (13.54%), so the pitch-mix side of his rating is solid. He plays at home in Tropicana Field, where the home run factor of 1.068 is hitter-friendly. Novig has him at +733, compared with a median of +625 across 11 books. With form and park both leaning his way, that is a fair price for a bat in good form.

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