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MLB Picks Today: Moneyline and Total Picks for Monday, October 19
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The picks
2 picks
Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Odds may have moved since publishing.
Today's MLB card is a single game, and it is one where PropFinder's game projections see the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays differently than the market does. I only take a side or a total when the model clearly disagrees with the price, so one game is all that made the cut.
For context, the MLB model is 1321-1140 all-time. Prices move, so check the number before you bet.
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
The Cleveland Guardians visit the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. The model projects a 4.08 to 3.83 Rays edge on the scoreboard, a projected total of 7.91 runs. Freddy Peralta (RHP) is the listed starter for Tampa Bay, while Cleveland's starter is not yet announced.
Cleveland Guardians moneyline (+135, Novig): PropFinder model 47.2% to win vs 42.4% implied
Cleveland Guardians
Moneyline
The model gives Cleveland a 47.2% chance to win, while the market implies 42.4% once the vig is removed. That is a 4.8 point edge on the road side, even though the model has the Rays slightly ahead on projected runs.
The best price is +135 at Novig. With the Cleveland starter still unannounced, keep an eye on the lineup news before locking in the number.
Over 6.5 (-110, Caesars): PropFinder projects 7.91 runs
Over 6.5
Total Runs
The model projects 7.91 combined runs against a market total of 6.5, a gap of 1.41 runs. That is a big gap for a single game and the main reason I like the Over here.
The best price is Over 6.5 at -110 at Caesars. Tampa Bay is projected for 4.08 runs and Cleveland for 3.83, so both lineups need to contribute for the Over to cash.
Prices are the best we found at the time of writing and move before game time. Projections are PropFinder's game model, not guarantees. This page may contain affiliate links. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available: call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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