This is an archived edition. For the latest picks see NHL Picks Today, updated every game day.
NHL Picks Today: Moneyline and Total Picks for Sunday, November 8
Every prop on today's slate, ranked live: NHL Player Props Today
The picks
8 picks
Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Odds may have moved since publishing.
I went through today's six-game NHL slate with PropFinder's game projections and compared them with the market. Every game below has at least one spot where the model clearly disagrees with the price, so those are the only plays I am writing up.
Prices move, so check the number before you bet. These are opinions built on projected goals and win probabilities, not certainties.
Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins
Florida (9-6-2) visits Boston (12-4-1) in the early game. The model projects a 3.60 to 2.65 Bruins win. Jacob Markstrom is the expected starter in goal for the Panthers, and Jeremy Swayman is expected in net for Boston, so both sides look set between the pipes.
Boston Bruins moneyline (-134, Bally Bet): PropFinder model 65.8% to win vs 54.9% implied
Boston Bruins
Moneyline
The model gives Boston a 65.8% chance to win, while the market implies 54.9%. That is a 10.9 point edge, and the model rates it a strong play. The best price is -134 at Bally Bet.
Boston is projected to outscore Florida by nearly a full goal at home, and the 12-4-1 record backs up the numbers. At that price the Bruins are the clearest disagreement on the board.
Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres
Vegas (11-5-2) heads to Buffalo (8-5-3) in a matchup the model sees as close to even. The projection is 3.23 for the Sabres and 3.00 for the Golden Knights. Carter Hart is the expected goalie for Vegas, and Colten Ellis is expected to start for Buffalo.
Buffalo Sabres moneyline (-100, Novig): PropFinder model 53.8% to win vs 49.5% implied
Buffalo Sabres
Moneyline
The model gives Buffalo a 53.8% chance to win against a market-implied 49.5%, a 4.3 point edge, and rates it a strong play. The best price is -100 at Novig, so you are getting even money on a side the model likes.
With home ice and a slight scoring edge in the projection, the Sabres are priced as a coin flip when the model sees them as a modest favorite.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets
Tampa Bay (11-3-2) travels to Winnipeg (6-8-3) in the evening game. The model projects 3.10 goals for the Lightning and 2.86 for the Jets. Andrei Vasilevskiy is listed in goal for Tampa Bay, and Stuart Skinner is listed for Winnipeg.
Winnipeg Jets moneyline (+135, Novig): PropFinder model 45.8% to win vs 43.3% implied
Winnipeg Jets
Moneyline
The model gives Winnipeg a 45.8% chance to win, compared with 43.3% implied by the market. That is a 2.5 point edge, and the model rates it a strong play. The best price is +135 at Novig.
It is a smaller gap than the other sides today, but a plus-money price on a team the model has this close to Tampa Bay is worth a look.
Under 6.5 (-113, Novig): PropFinder projects 6.12 goals
Under 6.5
Total Goals
The model projects 6.12 total goals against a line of 6.5, a gap of 0.38 goals, and puts the chance of the under at 56.4%. The best price on Under 6.5 is -113 at Novig.
Neither side projects to reach even 3.2 goals, with Tampa Bay at 3.10 and Winnipeg at 2.86, and the line is leaning higher than that.
New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs
New Jersey (12-5-0) visits Toronto (8-8-2). The model projects 3.31 goals for the Devils and 3.16 for the Maple Leafs, a tight game with plenty of scoring. Jake Allen is listed in goal for New Jersey, and Sergei Bobrovsky is listed for Toronto.
Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline (+141, Novig): PropFinder model 47.4% to win vs 41.5% implied
Toronto Maple Leafs
Moneyline
The model gives Toronto a 47.4% chance to win, while the market implies 41.5%. That is a 5.9 point edge, and the model rates it a strong play. The best price is +141 at Novig.
The projected margin is only 0.15 goals in New Jersey's favor, yet the market is pricing Toronto as a clear underdog. A home team at plus money in a near coin-flip game is the kind of gap I want to back.
Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames
Philadelphia (4-10-4) visits Calgary (7-9-1) in a matchup of two struggling teams. The model projects 2.66 goals for the Flames and 2.52 for the Flyers. Dan Vladar is expected in goal for Philadelphia, and Dustin Wolf is expected to start for Calgary.
Calgary Flames moneyline (+108, Novig): PropFinder model 52.6% to win vs 49.5% implied
Calgary Flames
Moneyline
The model gives Calgary a 52.6% chance to win, against a market-implied 49.5%. That is a 3.1 point edge, and the model rates it a strong play. The best price is +108 at Novig.
Getting plus money on the home side of a game the model leans toward Calgary is a small but real edge.
Under 5.5 (+104, Novig): PropFinder projects 5.37 goals
Under 5.5
Total Goals
The model projects 5.37 total goals against a line of 5.5, a gap of 0.13 goals, and puts the chance of the under at 58.3%. The best price on Under 5.5 is +104 at Novig.
Both offenses project below 2.7 goals, and the under returns plus money, which makes this a good price for a low-scoring game.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks
Pittsburgh (6-9-2) visits Anaheim (9-7-1) in the late game. The model projects a 4.06 to 3.33 Ducks win. Arturs Silovs is expected in goal for the Penguins, and Laurent Brossoit is expected to start for Anaheim.
Anaheim Ducks moneyline (-113, Novig): PropFinder model 61.3% to win vs 51.6% implied
Anaheim Ducks
Moneyline
The model gives Anaheim a 61.3% chance to win, while the market implies 51.6%. That is a 9.7 point edge, and the model rates it a strong play. The best price is -113 at Novig.
The Ducks project for more than four goals at home, and the 0.73 goal projected margin is far larger than a near pick-em price suggests.
Prices are the best we found at the time of writing and move before game time. Projections are PropFinder's game model, not guarantees. This page may contain affiliate links. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available: call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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