Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Friday, August 14

I went through all 15 games on Friday, August 14th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Luis Garcia Jr. to hit a HR --- (+460, Fanatics)

PLAYER HOME RUNSNYY@TOR· Aug 14, 7:15 PM ET

Luis Garcia Jr.

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+460

Shane Bieber has a real problem with left-handed power. PropFinder's HR risk model has him at 0.68 versus lefties compared to just 0.04 against righties, and to left-handed bats he is allowing a 1.96 HR/9 with a 23.8% HR/FB rate and a .447 SLG. He leans on a 34% four-seam and a 29% changeup to that side, and both are hittable.

Garcia Jr. is trending straight up. Over his last 25 balls in play his average exit velocity is up to 94.7 (+2.5), his barrel rate has jumped to 28% (+14.4) and his hard-hit rate is 56% (+9.4), topping out at 114 mph. He is a 50% pull-air bat with recent balls tracked at 372 and 423 feet. At +460 on Fanatics this is a strong lefty-on-righty price.

Lawrence Butler to hit a HR --- (+330, Betway)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTEX@ATH· Aug 14, 9:40 PM ET

Lawrence Butler

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+330

Kumar Rocker gets tagged by left-handed bats. His HR risk sits at 1.21 vs LHB against just 0.43 vs RHB, and to lefties he is surrendering a .617 SLG, a .298 ISO and a 38.9% fly-ball rate. He works a slider and sinker mix to that side and both have been aired out.

Butler has the profile to end it in one swing. His recent batted-ball data shows a 95.0 mph average exit velocity, a 66.7% hard-hit rate, four balls tracked at 300-plus feet and four at 350-plus, with three home runs and three near-misses over the sample. He is a left-handed pull hitter with the raw power to clear any yard. Betway has the best number at +330.

Coby Mayo to hit a HR --- (+400, Betway)

PLAYER HOME RUNSBAL@TB· Aug 14, 7:10 PM ET

Coby Mayo

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+400

This is the cleanest pitch matchup on the card. Steven Matz throws a sinker 44.9% of the time to right-handed hitters, and that sinker has been obliterated for a .831 SLG, a .508 ISO and eight home runs. The rest of his mix to righties has been hit hard as well.

Mayo eats sinkers from lefties alive. Against left-handed pitching his sinker line is a .938 SLG with a .500 ISO, and he is slugging .900-plus against their sliders and curveballs too. The spray overlay with Matz's sinker and changeup mix at Tropicana Field points the damage to the pull side. At +400 on Betway there is real value on the biggest raw-power bat in the matchup.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +7284 at Novig. Odds are subject to change.

Total Results: 32-139-8 (-29.11U)

Total Wagered Today: Luis Garcia Jr. (1U), Lawrence Butler (1U), Coby Mayo (1U)

Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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