Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Saturday, August 15

I went through all 15 games on Saturday, August 15th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Griffin Conine to hit a HR --- (+417, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIA@CIN· Aug 15, 6:40 PM ET

Griffin Conine

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+417

Brady Singer gets punished by left-handed power. To lefties he is allowing a .492 SLG with 16 home runs, a 1.94 HR/9 and a 21.6% HR/FB rate. He is a sinker and slider heavy arm to that side, and both have been driven.

Conine is one of the hottest bats in baseball right now. His recent batted-ball data shows a 96.7 mph average exit velocity, a 322-foot average distance, a 26.7% barrel rate and a 66.7% hard-hit rate, with five balls tracked at 300-plus feet, four at 350-plus, and three home runs plus three near-misses over his last 15. Great American Ball Park is one of the friendliest home run parks in the league. At +441 on Novig, I'm taking that all day.

Taylor Trammell to hit a HR --- (+567, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSEA@HOU· Aug 15, 7:10 PM ET

Taylor Trammell

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+567

Emerson Hancock has been vulnerable to left-handed bats, giving up a .483 SLG and a 1.38 HR/9 to that side, and his recent form has only gotten more hittable. He goes to a four-seam fastball 45% of the time against lefties.

Trammell is in the middle of a genuine power surge. Over his last 15 balls in play his barrel rate has spiked to 40% against a 25% season mark, his hard-hit rate is 53.3% and his max exit velocity is 112.6, with 11 balls tracked at 300-plus feet, 10 at 350-plus and a 50% HR/FB. He already has a 410-foot triple and a 409-foot home run on the recent log. Novig has the best number at +567.

Bryce Eldridge to hit a HR --- (+506, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCOL@SF· Aug 15, 4:05 PM ET

Bryce Eldridge

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+506

Michael Lorenzen is a home run problem against lefties. His HR risk sits at 1.17 vs LHB, and to that side he is surrendering a .596 SLG, a 2.38 HR/9 and a 23.1% HR/FB rate. His four-seam fastball (.714 SLG) and cutter (.919 SLG) both get crushed by left-handed bats.

Eldridge is built to punish exactly that. Against right-handed pitching his four-seam line is a .763 SLG with a .424 ISO and seven home runs, backed by a 98.0 mph exit velocity and a 67.4% hard-hit rate on the pitch. Oracle Park does suppress home runs, but the pitcher matchup is strong enough to take the swing at +506 on Novig.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +20782 at Novig. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+1.30U) --- Each prop is a flat 1U bet

Total Results: 33-141-8 (-27.81U)

Total Wagered Today: Griffin Conine (1U), Taylor Trammell (1U), Bryce Eldridge (1U)

Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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