Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Wednesday, August 12

I went through all 15 games on Wednesday, August 12th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Jac Caglianone to hit a HR --- (+550, FanDuel)

PLAYER HOME RUNSKC@LAD· Aug 12, 10:10 PM ET

Jac Caglianone

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+550

Eric Lauer is a left-hander, but that has been no shield against left-handed power this season. Versus lefty bats Lauer is surrendering a .762 SLG, a .474 wOBA and a 3.86 HR/9, with a 28.6% barrel rate and a 57.1% fly-ball rate allowed. PropFinder's HR risk model tags him at 1.19 against lefties, the wrong end of the scale for a pitcher facing this bat.

Caglianone has the exact profile to punish it. He is averaging 96.2 mph off the bat with a 59.3% hard-hit rate, nine batted balls tracked at 300-plus feet and six at 350-plus, and near elite bat speed at 77.1 mph (79th percentile). His pull-air tendency fits Dodger Stadium perfectly, and the spray overlay against Lauer's four-seam, cutter and slider mix shows the damage heading to the pull side.

Pete Alonso to hit a HR --- (+372, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSBAL@MIN· Aug 12, 1:40 PM ET

Pete Alonso

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+372

Alonso is locked in. Over his last 15 games he is running a 95.6 mph average exit velocity with a 33.3% barrel rate, and he took Bailey Ober deep for 418 feet just yesterday. His season-long 23.2% barrel rate confirms the power is very real right now.

The matchup grid is where this one pops. PropFinder shows five of Alonso's seven strongest power zones landing inside Zebby Matthews' seven most-used zones. Matthews works middle and up-and-away, exactly where Alonso's power scores sit between 92 and 97, and the zone edges read +55, +52 and +50 in Alonso's favor. Alonso does his best work against four-seam fastballs from right-handers, and that is Matthews' primary pitch. Kalshi is the best number at +372.

Munetaka Murakami to hit a HR --- (+284, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCIN@CWS· Aug 12, 7:40 PM ET

Munetaka Murakami

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+284

This is the model's highest home run probability on the entire slate. Murakami mashes right-handed pitching and the pitch-level splits are frightening: a .662 SLG and .419 ISO with nine homers against four-seam fastballs (the pitch he sees most at 30.4%), a .870 SLG against changeups, and a 97.5 mph exit velocity with a 63% hard-hit rate versus righties.

Rhett Lowder hands him plenty to hit. Against left-handed bats Lowder's slider has been tagged for a .659 SLG, a .318 ISO and four home runs, his sinker sits at a .426 SLG with 54.3% hard contact, and his changeup is at a .460 SLG. Murakami is scorching too, a 98.8 mph average exit velocity and 33.3% barrel over his last 15 with a home run off Gavin Williams on 8/8. At +284 he clears our number with a bit room to spare.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +7284 at Novig. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 2-1 (+4.82U) --- Each prop is a flat 1U bet

Total Results: 32-136-8 (-26.11U)

Total Wagered Today: Jac Caglianone (1U), Pete Alonso (1U), Munetaka Murakami (1U)

Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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