Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Friday, August 7

I went through all 15 games on Friday, August 7th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Owen Caissie to hit a HR --- (+330, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSLAA@MIA· Aug 7, 7:10 PM ET

Owen Caissie

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+330

George Klassen is the softest arm on tonight's entire board, and his two most-used pitches are getting hammered. His four-seam fastball (44% usage) is allowing a .600 slug and his changeup (35% usage) a .667 slug, so the vast majority of what Caissie sees projects as hittable. Caissie is locked in, sitting at a 97.7 mph average exit velocity with a 50% barrel rate over his last 10, and he already has home runs off Bryan Woo (108 mph, 417 feet) and John Brebbia (109 mph, 452 feet) in that window. Against Klassen's specific mix he carries a .605 slug, a 23% barrel rate, and a 46% hard-hit rate. Klassen is a rookie who struggles to command the zone, and this is the cleanest hitter versus bad pitcher spot on the slate.

Manny Machado to hit a HR --- (+380, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSHOU@SD· Aug 7, 9:40 PM ET

Manny Machado

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+380

Ronel Blanco leans on a four-seam fastball nearly half the time, and it has been punished for a .800 slug and a .600 iso this year. Machado has feasted on that pattern. In their head to head sample he is slugging .645 with a 96.5 mph average exit velocity, a 64.6% hard-hit rate, and 14 batted balls in the near-homer band. Machado does his damage in the air to the pull side, and Blanco's fastball is exactly the kind of mistake pitch he punishes. When a proven power bat has this kind of track record against a homer-prone fastball, the number is worth taking.

Dominic Canzone to hit a HR --- (+525, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@SEA· Aug 7, 9:45 PM ET

Dominic Canzone

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+525

This is the one tough pitcher on the card, so we are paying up for it. Drew Rasmussen has the nastiest stuff on the slate, but there is still a lane for a left-handed power bat. His cutter is the pitch that gets elevated and it is allowing a .375 slug. Against Rasmussen's specific mix, Canzone has slugged .585 with a 93.9 mph exit velocity and a 51% hard-hit rate, and his batted-ball profile produces a home run on roughly a third of his air contact to the pull side. Rasmussen's home run risk versus lefties grades neutral, and at plus money Canzone's pull power is worth the dart. This is the lowest-probability leg of the three but the biggest payout.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at [PARLAY ODDS] at Hard Rock Bet. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 28-125-8 (-27.43U)
Total Wagered Today: Owen Caissie (1U), Manny Machado (1U), Dominic Canzone (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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