Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Friday, July 10

I went through all 15 games on Friday, July 10th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Kazuma Okamoto to hit a HR --- (+407, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTOR@SD· Jul 10, 9:40 PM ET

Kazuma Okamoto

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+343

Matchup vs. JP Sears (Padres), Petco Park, 9:40 PM ET

Okamoto leads off the card, and the matchup is the reason. Sears is a left-hander who has been homer-prone to right-handed bats all year, giving up a 2.45 HR/9 to righties with a 42.1% fly-ball rate and an 18.8% HR/FB. The pitch he leans on plays right into Okamoto's hands. Sears throws his four-seam 37% of the time against righties, and Okamoto is a right-handed slugger who punishes it. Against Sears's pitch mix he has 4 home runs and 4 more near misses on his batted balls, with a 20.8% barrel rate and a 54.2% hard-hit rate at a 95 average exit velocity. His recent power backs it up, with a 420-foot shot and a 397-foot shot both leaving the bat at 108 off left-handers in the last few weeks. At +407 he leads off the card.

Pick 2: Miguel Vargas to hit a HR --- (+325, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSATH@CWS· Jul 10, 7:40 PM ET

Miguel Vargas

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+325

Matchup vs. Jacob Lopez (Athletics), Rate Field, 7:40 PM ET

Vargas is next and the setup is loud. Lopez is another left-hander who gets punished by right-handed bats, a 2.19 HR/9 to that side with a .551 SLG. Righties are teeing off on his four-seam, slugging .702 with 4 home runs on it, and he throws it 32% of the time to right-handed hitters. That is Vargas's wheelhouse. He bats right and does his damage against lefties, slugging .680 with 3 home runs on the four-seam and .733 with 2 more on the sinker. Against Lopez's full mix he has 4 home runs and 4 near misses on his batted balls, with 82% of that contact in the air and a 53.6% hard-hit rate. At +325 there is a lot to like.

Pick 3: Mike Trout to hit a HR --- (+375, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSLAA@MIN· Jul 10, 8:10 PM ET

Mike Trout

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+350

Matchup vs. Zebby Matthews (Twins), Target Field, 8:10 PM ET

Trout rounds out the card as the swing on a red-hot bat. Over his last 15 balls in play he is barreling 40% of them at a 99 average exit velocity, with three home runs in his last five games. Matthews is a right-hander who has been homer prone this season, a 1.93 HR/9 with a 23.8% HR/FB, and he leans heavily on his four-seam, which is the pitch Trout has punished all year. Every one of his recent barrels has come off a four-seamer, including a 435-foot shot and a 403-foot shot. When you overlay his batted balls on Matthews's pitch mix, better than a quarter of them clear the fence, almost all of it being pulled in the air to left field.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +7975 at Hard Rock Bet. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 16-68-5 (-12.17U)
Total Wagered Today: Okamoto (1U), Vargas (1U), Trout (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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