Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Saturday, July 11

I went through all 16 games on Saturday, July 11th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez to hit a HR --- (+284, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSHOU@TEX· Jul 11, 7:05 PM ET

Yordan Alvarez

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+284

Matchup vs. Kumar Rocker (Rangers), Globe Life Field, 7:05 PM ET

Alvarez anchors the card and the matchup is the reason. Rocker has been homer prone to left-handed bats all year, giving up a 2.19 HR/9 to lefties with a .589 SLG and a 28.6% HR/FB. That is a bad way to run into the best power bat in this game. Against Rocker's pitch mix Alvarez has 8 home runs and 12 more near misses on his batted balls, at a 97 average exit velocity with a 24.6% barrel rate and a 57.9% hard-hit rate. The pitch types line up too. Rocker leans on his sinker and four-seam to lefties, and Alvarez slugs .833 with 4 home runs on the sinker and .701 with 7 more on the four-seam against right-handers. +284 is a great chalk price, I'll bite.

Pick 2: Kyle Stowers to hit a HR --- (+321, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCLE@MIA· Jul 11, 4:10 PM ET

Kyle Stowers

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+321

Matchup vs. Tanner Bibee (Guardians), loanDepot Park, 4:10 PM ET

Stowers is next and the bat is hot. Over his last 15 BBE against the sinker/cutter from a RHP, he is barreling nearly 27% of them at a 94 average exit velocity, including a 377-foot home run off a sinker a week ago. Bibee is a right-hander who has been vulnerable to left-handed power, giving up a .643 SLG with 2 home runs on his cutter. That plays into Stowers, a lefty who does his damage on hard stuff, slugging .824 with 2 home runs on the sinker at a 30.8% barrel rate and adding 3 more on the four-seam. At +321 there is real juice on the number.

Pick 3: Dominic Canzone to hit a HR --- (+421, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSEA@TB· Jul 11, 4:10 PM ET

Dominic Canzone

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+421

Matchup vs. Griffin Jax (Rays), Tropicana Field, 4:10 PM ET

Canzone rounds out the card as the value swing on a hot bat, with 2 home runs over his last 5 games. Jax has been homer prone to left-handed hitters, a 1.63 HR/9 with a 31.8% HR/FB to that side. Canzone is a lefty who has punished his pitch mix, 5 home runs and 7 near misses on his batted balls with a 50% hard-hit rate and 56% of his contact in the air. When you overlay his batted balls on Jax's mix, better than a third of them clear the fence. At +421 he is the best price on the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +8323 at DraftKings. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 2-0 (+7.4U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 18-68-6 (-4.77U)
Total Wagered Today: Alvarez (1U), Stowers (1U), Canzone (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

Affiliate disclosure: This page may contain affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.

Must be of legal age in your jurisdiction. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling is a problem, support is available — 1-800-GAMBLER.