Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Thursday, July 9

I went through all 13 games on Thursday, July 9th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Corbin Carroll to hit a HR --- (+383, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSARI@SD· Jul 9, 9:40 PM ET

Corbin Carroll

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+383

Matchup vs. Griffin Canning (Padres), San Diego, 9:40 PM ET

Carroll leads off the card and the matchup is the reason. Canning has been homer-prone to left-handed bats all year, giving up a 2.45 HR/9 to lefties with a .542 SLG and a 23.8% HR/FB. The pitch mix lines up, too. Canning leans on his four-seam fastball 31% of the time against lefties, and it has been taken deep 3 times with a .556 SLG. Carroll is a lefty who punishes that pitch, 5 home runs on four-seamers against right-handers with a .500 SLG. He also crushes the slider that Canning throws 23% of the time, slugging .800 with a 33% barrel rate. Add in elite bat speed and a pull-heavy air profile and this is a live spot even in a tougher park. At +400, he leads off the card.

Pick 2: Brandon Marsh to hit a HR --- (+425, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSPHI@CIN· Jul 9, 7:10 PM ET

Brandon Marsh

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+425

Matchup vs. Brady Singer (Reds), Great American Ball Park, 7:10 PM ET

Marsh is next, and the setup is strong. Singer has been homer prone to lefties given up a 1.53 HR/9, and even though he is a sinker-heavy righty, he gives up a ton of air to left-handed bats, a 44.2% fly-ball rate with a 15.8% HR/FB. That plays right into Marsh, who over his last 50 balls in play is barreling 18% with a 44% hard-hit rate and putting 62% of his contact in the air, pulling 40% of 'em. Nine of those balls have traveled 350 feet or more. Do all of that in Great American Ball Park, one of the best home run parks in baseball, and the ceiling is real. At +425, there is a lot to like.

Pick 3: Josh Bell to hit a HR --- (+550, Fanatics)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCLE@MIN· Jul 9, 1:40 PM ET

Josh Bell

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+550

Matchup vs. Gavin Williams (Guardians), Target Field, 1:40 PM ET

Bell rounds out the card as the value swing. Williams leans on a curveball that left-handed bats have been teeing off on, a .625 SLG with 2 home runs and a 58.8% hard-hit rate, and Bell gets to attack him from the left side as a switch-hitter. Bell's power shows up most on the fastball, where he is slugging .556 with 4 home runs against right-handers, and he is swinging a hot bat, barreling 26.7% of his last 15 balls in play at a 92 average exit velocity, including a 413-foot home run off a four-seamer a couple weeks back. Two home runs over his last 5 games and a switch-hitting edge, at +550, he is the best price on the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +15650 at Hard Rock Bet. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-2-1 (-2U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 16-65-5 (-9.17U)
Total Wagered Today: Carroll (1U), Marsh (1U), Bell (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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