Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Friday, July 17

I went through all 15 games on Friday, July 17th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Pete Alonso to hit a HR --- (+312, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSBAL@HOU· Jul 17, 8:10 PM ET

Pete Alonso

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+312

Matchup vs. Peter Lambert (Astros), Daikin Park, 8:10 PM ET

Alonso leads off the card and the spot is a good one. Lambert has been very hittable this year, and his four-seam is the problem, a .553 SLG with 5 home runs allowed on it, and he throws it 28% of the time to right-handed bats. Alonso is a right-handed masher who has 15 home runs and 21 near misses on his batted balls, a .574 SLG with a 54.9% hard-hit rate and 25 balls hit 350 feet or more. Do it in Houston, one of the better home run parks in baseball, and the ceiling is real. At +312 he leads off the card.

Pick 2: Matt Olson to hit a HR --- (+330, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTEX@ATL· Jul 17, 7:15 PM ET

Matt Olson

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+330

Matchup vs. Cal Quantrill (Rangers), Truist Park, 7:15 PM ET

Olson is next on a warming bat, with 5 home runs over his last 20 games. Quantrill leans on his four-seam and cutter, and those are the two pitches Olson feasts on from the left side, slugging .607 with 5 home runs on the four-seam and .941 with 3 more on the cutter against right-handers. He is putting a 70% hard-hit rate on four-seamers with a 109 max exit velocity, and he is squaring the ball up again at the right time. At +330 there is a lot to like.

Pick 3: Heliot Ramos to hit a HR --- (+525, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSF@SEA· Jul 17, 10:10 PM ET

Heliot Ramos

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+525

Matchup vs. Bryce Miller (Mariners), T-Mobile Park, 10:10 PM ET

Ramos rounds out the card as the value swing on a hot bat, with 5 home runs over his last 20 games. Miller has been getting hit hard lately, giving up a .667 SLG with 3 home runs on his four-seam over his last five starts, and he throws it more than any other pitch. Ramos has the pop to keep it going with a 108 max exit velocity and a hot stretch at the plate. He attacks a four-seam-heavy righty who has left too many pitches over the plate, and at +525 he is the best price on the card.

HR Prop Parlay

I'm waiting till morning to bet the parlay - these odds on Alonso are a joke compared to most other apps. Hoping his value goes up!

Combining all three home run props: +6861. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+1.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 20-72-6 (-2.93U)
Total Wagered Today: Alonso (1U), Olson (1U), Ramos (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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