Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Sunday, July 12

I went through all 15 games on Sunday, July 12th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: James Wood to hit a HR --- (+330, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSNYY@WSH· Jul 12, 1:35 PM ET

James Wood

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+330

Matchup vs. Will Warren (Yankees), Nationals Park, 1:35 PM ET

Wood leads off the card as the hottest bat on the board, with 4 home runs over his last 5 games. Warren is a right-hander who has been hittable to left-handed bats, giving up a .535 SLG with 2 home runs on his four-seam, and he throws that pitch 41% of the time to lefties. That is right in Wood's kitchen. Against this pitch mix Wood has 11 home runs and 20 near misses on his batted balls, barreling 24% at a 96 average exit velocity with a 64% hard-hit rate, and 40 of his balls in play have traveled 300 feet or more. At +300 he leads off the card.

Pick 2: Elly De La Cruz to hit a HR --- (+400, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCHC@CIN· Jul 12, 1:40 PM ET

Elly De La Cruz

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+344

Matchup vs. Matthew Boyd (Cubs), Great American Ball Park, 1:40 PM ET

Elly is next and the setup is loud. Boyd is a left-hander who throws his four-seam more than half the time, and Elly obliterates that pitch from the right side as a switch-hitter, a 1.071 SLG with 6 home runs and a 36% barrel rate against four-seamers from left-handers. Boyd has been hittable on it too, a .492 SLG with 2 home runs allowed to right-handed bats. Add a 110 max exit velocity and a 23% overall barrel rate, and do it all in Great American Ball Park, one of the best home run parks in baseball, and the ceiling is enormous. At +400 there is a lot to like.

Pick 3: Manny Machado to hit a HR --- (+424, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTOR@SD· Jul 12, 4:10 PM ET

Manny Machado

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+424

Matchup vs. Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), Petco Park, 4:10 PM ET

Machado rounds out the card as the value swing on a warm bat, with 7 home runs over his last 20 games. Gausman has been very homer prone to right-handed hitters, a 1.91 HR/9, and righties are teeing off on his stuff, a .818 SLG on the four-seam he throws nearly half the time and a .727 SLG on the slider. Machado attacks from the right side, and against Gausman's mix he has 10 home runs and 15 near misses on his batted balls with 30 balls hit 300 feet or more. At +413 he is the best price on the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +10160 at Novig. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+0.84U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 19-70-6 (-3.93U)
Total Wagered Today: Wood (1U), Elly (1U), Machado (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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