Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Saturday, July 18
I went through all 16 games on Saturday, July 18th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Pick 1: Munetaka Murakami to hit a HR --- (+328, Hard Rock Bet)
CWS@
TOR· Jul 18, 3:07 PM ET
Munetaka Murakami
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Shane Bieber (Blue Jays), Rogers Centre, 3:07 PM ET
Murakami leads off the card and the matchup is the reason. Bieber has been getting hammered by left-handed bats, a 3.12 HR/9 with a .576 SLG and a 33.3% HR/FB to that side, one of the most homer prone starters on the board. Murakami is a left-handed masher, barreling 27% of his batted balls at a .757 SLG with a 62.5% hard-hit rate, and he has 11 home runs and 11 near misses on the year. He brings elite bat speed and power into a spot where the pitcher simply cannot keep the ball in the yard. At +328 he leads off the card.
Pick 2: Samuel Basallo to hit a HR --- (+447, Novig)
BAL@
HOU· Jul 18, 4:10 PM ET
Samuel Basallo
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Spencer Arrighetti (Astros), Daikin Park, 4:10 PM ET
Basallo is next and the spot is loud. Arrighetti has been a disaster against left-handed hitters over his last five starts, a 5.02 HR/9 with a .754 SLG and a 53.8% HR/FB to that side. Basallo attacks him from the left side with 5 home runs and 7 near misses on his batted balls, a 20% barrel rate and a 54% hard-hit rate, and he is swinging a hot bat with 6 home runs over his last 20 games. At +447 there is a lot to like.
Pick 3: Jac Caglianone to hit a HR --- (+404, DraftKings)
SD@
KC· Jul 18, 4:10 PM ET
Jac Caglianone
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Matchup vs. Griffin Canning (Padres), Kauffman Stadium, 4:10 PM ET
Caglianone rounds out the card as the raw-power swing. Canning has given up plenty of damage to lefties, a 2.27 HR/9 with a .531 SLG, and Caglianone brings some of the loudest contact in baseball, a 111 max exit velocity with a 20.5% barrel rate and a 62.7% hard-hit rate, and 7 home runs and 10 near misses on his batted balls. With the wind blowing out at Kauffman, the ceiling plays up even in a bigger park.
HR Prop Parlay
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Combining all three home run props: +11376. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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