Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Thursday, July 23

I went through all 5 games on Thursday, July 23rd to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and the specific pitch types each hitter does the most damage against. Each of today's three picks targets a bat that punishes the exact pitches his opponent leans on most. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Junior Caminero to hit a HR --- (+254, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@TOR· Jul 23, 3:07 PM ET

Junior Caminero

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+240

Matchup vs. Shane Bieber (Blue Jays), Rogers Centre

Caminero leads the card at the shortest price, and the case is a pitcher who keeps getting squared up. On the season Shane Bieber is allowing a .302 average against with a .594 slug and a 2.66 HR/9, and against right handed hitters it gets worse, a .396 average against, a .708 slug, and a 3.38 HR/9 with a 40% home run to fly ball rate. The two pitches Bieber throws most are the four seam at 35.6% and the cutter at 19.7%, and those are the two Caminero punishes. Against the four seam he is slugging .750 with 5 home runs, a 99.3 average exit velocity, an 18.9% barrel rate, and a 70.3% hard hit rate, and against the cutter he is at a .737 slug with a 26.3% barrel rate. Over his last 30 batted balls Caminero is running a 99.3 average exit velocity and a 26.7% barrel rate with 4 home runs and 5 near misses. A right handed masher who crushes the two pitches this arm leans on most is exactly the profile to target.

Pick 2: Matt Olson to hit a HR --- (+323, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSD@ATL· Jul 23, 12:15 PM ET

Matt Olson

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+300

Matchup vs. Griffin Canning (Padres), Truist Park

Olson is next and the fastball is the pitch to attack. Against left handed hitters this season Griffin Canning has been vulnerable with the offerings he uses most, a .531 slug allowed on the four seam and a .540 slug on the changeup. Olson eats fastballs. Against right handed pitching he is slugging .656 on the four seam with 6 home runs, a 97.6 average exit velocity, a 22.9% barrel rate, and a 68.8% hard hit rate, and he does damage on the secondary stuff too, a .792 slug on the slider and a .765 slug on the cutter. His recent power backs it up, a 97.0 average exit velocity and a 20% barrel rate over his last 15 at bats against righties, a stretch that includes a 419 foot home run off a four seamer on July 17th. A left handed pull hitter this locked in against a fastball he punishes is a strong spot.

Pick 3: Ryan Jeffers to hit a HR --- (+500, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIN@CLE· Jul 23, 1:10 PM ET

Ryan Jeffers

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+500

Matchup vs. Gavin Williams (Guardians), Progressive Field

Jeffers closes the card at the longest price and his pitcher has been homer prone all year. Gavin Williams has already allowed 20 home runs this season, and against right handed hitters he is giving up a .460 slug, a 1.96 HR/9, and a 38.1% home run to fly ball rate. His two most used pitches against righties are the sweeper at 37% and the sinker at 30%, and the sweeper is the one to watch. Jeffers just took a sweeper 368 feet for a home run on July 17th, and he is a pull heavy fly ball hitter, a 46.7% pull rate, a 50% fly ball rate, and a 33.3% home run to fly ball rate over his recent batted balls to go with a 26.7% barrel rate. Over his last 15 at bats against righties he is barreling 26.7% at a 94.1 average exit velocity. A right handed hitter who lifts and pulls the ball against an arm that keeps leaving the sweeper over the plate is a live longshot to close the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +8465 at Hard Rock Bet. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 22-88-6 (-12.13U)
Total Wagered Today: Caminero (1U), Olson (1U), Jeffers (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

Affiliate disclosure: This page may contain affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.

Must be of legal age in your jurisdiction. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling is a problem, support is available — 1-800-GAMBLER.