Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Friday, July 31

I went through all 15 games on Friday, July 31st to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Carter Jensen to hit a HR --- (+300, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSKC@COL· Jul 31, 8:40 PM ET

Carter Jensen

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+300

Matchup vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (Colorado Rockies), Coors Field, 8:40 PM ET

Carter Jensen is the shortest price on the board, and it starts with Tomoyuki Sugano getting punished by left-handed bats. Against lefties this season Sugano's four-seam has been crushed for a .766 SLG with a 60.5% hard-hit rate and 5 home runs, and his cutter has been even worse, a 1.000 SLG with a 27.3% barrel rate and 4 home runs. Jensen is built to hurt exactly those pitches. On the season against right-handers he owns a 1.000 SLG and a 27.3% barrel rate on cutters with 3 home runs, and a .929 SLG on sinkers with 2 more. The zone map backs it up, three of his hottest power areas fall in the spots Sugano works most, with down and middle grading as his biggest edges. Now put it in Coors Field, one of the best home run parks in baseball. Elite fastball damage against a fastball that keeps leaving the yard, at altitude, is the cleanest swing on the card.

Jake Bauers to hit a HR --- (+340, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIL@LAA· Jul 31, 9:38 PM ET

Jake Bauers

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+340

Matchup vs. Ryan Johnson (Los Angeles Angels), Angel Stadium, 9:38 PM ET

The middle leg stays on the fastball theme, this time against an arm that has been a home run machine to lefties. Ryan Johnson has served up a .510 SLG and 6 home runs to left-handed hitters this season, a 2.35 HR/9 and a 25.0% home-run-per-fly-ball rate, and he lives on his splitter (38%), cutter (28%) and sinker (26%). That is right in Jake Bauers' wheelhouse. Over his last 25 batted balls against right-handers, on exactly that splitter-cutter-sinker mix, Bauers is barreling 28.0% with a 99.4 mph average exit velocity, including a 375-foot home run off a sinker at 111.8 mph. Over his last 15 he owns 2 home runs and 3 near-misses with a 66.7% hard-hit rate and a 28.6% home-run-per-fly-ball clip. Angel Stadium plays a touch up for power, and a locked-in lefty against a homer-prone fastball arm is a live one.

Willi Castro to hit a HR --- (+500, Hard Rock)

PLAYER HOME RUNSKC@COL· Jul 31, 8:40 PM ET

Willi Castro

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+500

Matchup vs. Michael Wacha (Kansas City Royals), Coors Field, 8:40 PM ET

The longest price of the three brings it back to Coors Field. Michael Wacha keeps his changeup away from lefties for a reason, they cannot touch it, but the pitches around it are hittable, a .604 SLG with 2 home runs on his cutter and a 39.7% hard-hit rate with 2 more homers on his four-seam. Willi Castro, switch-hitting to his left side here, has been on a power tear against right-handed pitching. Over his last 15 he is barreling 33.3% with 60% fly balls and a 33.3% home-run-per-fly-ball rate, 8 balls hit 300-plus feet and 6 past 350, with recent home runs of 435, 397 and 395 feet off righties. Drop that into Coors and the math gets scary. A red-hot lefty stroke against a fastball-and-cutter mix he can ambush, at altitude, is exactly the swing you take when the number runs out to +500.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +10460 at FanDuel. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+1.55U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 25-108-7 (-20.18U)
Total Wagered Today: Carter Jensen (1U), Jake Bauers (1U), Willi Castro (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

Affiliate disclosure: This page may contain affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available — 1-800-GAMBLER.