Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Saturday, August 1

I went through all 13 games on Saturday, August 1st to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate. I hit this exact 3-leg earlier this season... let's run it back.

James Wood to hit a HR --- (+323, FanDuel)

PLAYER HOME RUNSWSH@ATL· Aug 1, 7:15 PM ET

James Wood

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+323

Matchup vs. Reynaldo Lopez (Atlanta Braves), Truist Park, 7:15 PM ET

James Wood is the shortest price on the board and the strongest bat-versus-arm fit of the three. Reynaldo Lopez leans on his four-seam (51%) and slider (28%) against left-handed hitters, and Wood does not miss those pitches. On that exact four-seam and slider mix from right-handers this season he is slugging .782 with a .444 ISO, a 29.1% barrel rate, 64% hard contact, a 97.3 mph average exit velocity, and 35 balls hit 300-plus feet with 25 of them clearing 350, good for 16 home runs. The spray chart is even louder: matched to Lopez's mix over the last 60 days, 80% of Wood's balls in play against it have left the yard, all in the air. He has already taken Lopez deep once in a small career sample. Elite lefty power against the exact pitches this pitcher throws most is the cleanest swing on the card.

Matt Olson to hit a HR --- (+335, FanDuel)

PLAYER HOME RUNSWSH@ATL· Aug 1, 7:15 PM ET

Matt Olson

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+335

Matchup vs. Miles Mikolas (Washington Nationals), Truist Park, 7:15 PM ET

The middle leg flips to the other side of the same game. Matt Olson draws Miles Mikolas, and it comes down to what Mikolas leaves over the plate against left-handed bats. Mikolas can get lefties out with his four-seam, but the pitches around it are the problem, a .515 SLG with 2 home runs on his sinker and a .577 SLG with a .308 ISO and 2 more home runs on his slider. Olson has the recent thump to punish that. Over his last 15 batted balls he owns 2 home runs and 2 near-misses with a 20% barrel rate, 60% hard contact, a 97.7 mph average exit velocity, and 4 balls hit 300-plus feet with 2 clearing 350, good for a 28.6% home-run-per-fly-ball rate. A proven power bat against a sinker-slider arm that lefties tag is a strong middle-of-the-card swing.

Drake Baldwin to hit a HR --- (+420, FanDuel)

PLAYER HOME RUNSWSH@ATL· Aug 1, 7:15 PM ET

Drake Baldwin

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+420

Matchup vs. Miles Mikolas (Washington Nationals), Truist Park, 7:15 PM ET

The longest price of the three is the rookie with the loudest recent contact, and he draws the same Mikolas arsenal Olson does. Baldwin punishes the ball down in the zone, exactly where Mikolas lives: four of his seven hottest power areas fall in the spots Mikolas uses most, with his down-and-in and middle zones grading as major edges. And the bat is heating up. Over his last 15 batted balls he is barreling 26.7%, well up from his 17.4% on the season, with a 94.3 mph average exit velocity and a recent 382-foot fly ball at 103 mph off a curveball. Same soft sinker-slider mix, same park, a longer price on a bat that is trending up is the swing to round out the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +9468 at DraftKings. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 2-0-1 (+6.40U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 27-108-8 (-13.78U)
Total Wagered Today: James Wood (1U), Matt Olson (1U), Drake Baldwin (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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