Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Saturday, June 13

I went through all 15 games on Saturday, June 13th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: James Wood to hit a HR --- (+312, Kalshi)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSEA@WSH· Jun 13, 4:05 PM ET

James Wood

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+312

Matchup vs Luis Castillo (Mariners), Nationals Park, 4:05PM EST

James Wood comes in at #1 on my favorite home run pick for the June 13th slate. Wood has had a hot bat as of late, going back-to-back in his most recent games. Based on what I saw statistically, I project him to extend his streak. Due to Castillo's relatively good reputation around the league, his recent struggles vs. left-handed hitters have been swept under the rug. He gives up nearly double the average HR/9, coming in at 1.71 HR/9 to lefties over this season. Wood is a heater/slider hunter, which happen to be Castillo's top two pitches. Over his last 15 BBE, Wood has a 26.7% barrel along with a 67% Hard-Hit rate, 45% blast, and the highest zone score of today's slate.

Pick 2: Garrett Mitchell to hit a HR --- (+680, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSPHI@MIL· Jun 13, 7:10 PM ET

Garrett Mitchell

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+680

Matchup vs Aaron Nola (Phillies), American Family Field, 7:10PM EST

Mitchell takes up my second slot for today's slate. There is a big worry I want to get out of the way early, I do see a scenario where Mitchell gets pinch-hit for if the Phillies bring in a lefty late in the game. With that said, and the odds presented, you're wondering why are you taking him...

So, allow me to explain why I think the risk/reward makes sense in this spot. To start, Mitchell has a stellar matchup to a right-handed starter in Nola who gives up a 2.05 HR/9, showing that lefties over the past two seasons have clearly had his number. On top of the high HR/9, he also allows a 47.5% Hard-Hit rate, 29% FB rate, along with lower strikeout metrics across the board.

Now you know why I targeted a lefty, but why Mitchell. When looking at at his stats it's clear how truly unlucky of a hitting season Mitchell has had. He is third on his team in near homers (a BBE that would've resulted in a homer in at least one ballpark), but sixth in actual homers. The spray chart/metric sheet below do a good job illustrating this point further.

Above, you can see at least three BBE's that would've resulted in home runs had he been playing at home.

The image above shows Mitchell's recent home run unlucky factor. Red in our system shows a barreled ball. None of these were home runs.

Pick 3: Max Muncy to hit a HR --- (+350, Fanduel)

PLAYER HOME RUNSLAD@CWS· Jun 13, 4:10 PM ET

Max Muncy

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+350

Matchup vs Sean Burke (White Sox), Rate Field, 4:10PM EST

This is a classic case of not overthinking it, and just taking the best home run hitter on the squad. Over the last 15 BBE against the majority of Burke's mix, Muncy has 3 homer runs and a 26.7 Pull barrel, both of which lead the team. This includes 6 hits over 350 feet, a 21 zone score, 5 near home runs, and a 320 ft. avg. hit distance. Not only his recency, but his season barrel of 9.4% is nothing to scoff at either.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +13480 at DraftKings. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+0.76U)
Each prop is played to WIN 1 Unit (not including original stake)
Total Results: 5-9-1 (+6.98U)
Total Wagered Today: Wood(), Mitchell(), Muncy()
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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