Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, August 10

I went through all 10 games on Monday, August 10th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Wilyer Abreu to hit a HR --- (+318, Polymarket)

Jameson Taillon has been one of the most homer-prone right-handers around against left-handed hitters, with a home run risk grade of 1.55 to that side. His four-seam fastball has been slugged .739 with six home runs and his cutter .684 with three more, and Abreu is a left-handed bat built to punish exactly that. Against Taillon's mix he carries a 48% hard-hit rate with eight barrels and twelve near-homers, and his batted-ball profile turns into a home run on 31% of balls at Rogers Centre dimensions. Shortest price of the three and the safest leg.

Michael Harris II to hit a HR --- (+433, Polymarket)

Michael Harris II is home in Truist Park with the platoon edge, and while Christian Scott grades tough overall, the pitch matchup tilts Harris's way. Scott lives on a four-seam fastball he throws nearly half the time and mixes in a sweeper, and Harris has slugged .740 against four-seamers and .789 against sweepers this year. Against Scott's specific mix he is running a 60% hard-hit rate. His left-handed pull power plays at home, and at plus money this is a strong middle-of-the-card swing.

Jose Siri to hit a HR --- (+590, Novig)

Jose Siri is pure right-handed thunder with elite bat speed, and he draws the platoon edge against lefty MacKenzie Gore. Gore leans on a four-seam fastball nearly half the time to righties and it has been slugged .382 with six home runs, while his cutter has been crushed for a .619 slug and four more. Against Gore's mix Siri is slugging .786 with a 20% barrel rate, and he has been squaring up left-handed fastballs lately with recent home runs of 404 and 407 feet. He is boom-or-bust, but at plus-590 the price more than pays for it. Biggest payout of the three.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +14059. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 30-132-8 (-27.93U)
Total Wagered Today: Wilyer Abreu (1U), Michael Harris II (1U), Jose Siri (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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