Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Sunday, August 9

I went through all 15 games on Sunday, August 9th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Wilyer Abreu to hit a HR --- (+259, DraftKings)

J.T. Ginn is vulnerable to left-handed power, and his two most hittable pitches back it up. Against lefties his cutter has been slugged .676 with three home runs and his slider .567 with two more. Abreu is a left-handed bat who punishes exactly those pitches, slugging .690 against sliders and .441 with five home runs against four-seamers this year, with a 66.7% hard-hit rate over his last 15 batted balls. Ginn's home run risk versus lefties leans hittable, and at Fenway a pulled fly ball from a lefty is always live. This is the shortest price of the three and the safest leg.

Luis Garcia Jr. to hit a HR --- (+350, Hard Rock)

Grant Holmes leaves the ball up to left-handed hitters, and his fastball (.559 slug, four home runs) and cutter (.633 slug, three home runs) are the pitches that hurt him most. Garcia has been barreling everything, sitting at a 94.9 mph exit velocity with a 32% barrel rate and a 56% hard-hit rate over his last 25 batted balls. The zone chart is the clincher: Garcia's power zones line up directly with where Holmes lives, giving him a plus-21 edge down and in and a plus-22 edge middle. Add the short porch at Yankee Stadium and this is a prime left-handed power spot.

Esmerlyn Valdez to hit a HR --- (+401, DraftKings)

Esmerlyn Valdez is a right-handed bat who feasts on left-handed pitching, and Sean Manaea is a lefty who has been homer-prone to righties. Against southpaws this year Valdez is slugging .808 with seven home runs in limited at-bats and a .520 iso, and over his last 15 batted balls he is at a 100.6 mph exit velocity with a 73% hard-hit rate. Manaea leans on a four-seam fastball two-thirds of the time to righties and has given up a .476 slug and nine home runs to that side, with his home run risk versus righties grading high. A right-handed masher of lefties against a homer-prone fastball is the biggest-payout leg and a live one.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +7994 at DraftKings. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 2-1 (+5.50U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 30-129-8 (-24.93U)
Total Wagered Today: Wilyer Abreu (1U), Luis Garcia Jr. (1U), Esmerlyn Valdez (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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