Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, August 11
I went through all 15 games on Tuesday, August 11th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Joc Pederson to hit a HR --- (+245, Novig)
TEX@
LAA· Aug 11, 9:38 PM ET
Joc Pederson
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Ryan Johnson has been one of the most homer-prone arms in baseball, giving up 2.31 home runs per nine with a 1.16 home run risk grade to lefties, and he has already allowed a .483 slug and seven home runs to that side. Joc Pederson is a professional left-handed power hitter who does his damage in the air to the pull side, and against Johnson's mix he is sitting at a 94.9 mph exit velocity with a 64% hard-hit rate. His spray turns into a home run on 29% of balls at Angel Stadium. Shortest price of the three and the safest leg.
Pete Alonso to hit a HR --- (+337, Polymarket)
BAL@
MIN· Aug 11, 7:40 PM ET
Pete Alonso
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Bailey Ober is far more hittable to right-handed bats than to lefties, allowing a .538 slug with a 25% home-run-per-fly-ball rate to that side. Pete Alonso is elite right-handed power, and the zone chart shows his strongest damage areas line up directly with where Ober lives, giving him edges of plus-50 or more up and out of the zone where Ober works. Against Ober's mix Alonso is running a 33% barrel rate and a 60% hard-hit rate. A clean pitcher-hand and zone match helps Alonso's chances.
Riley Greene to hit a HR --- (+441, Novig)
CLE@
DET· Aug 11, 6:40 PM ET
Riley Greene
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Tanner Bibee has been vulnerable to left-handed power all year, surrendering a .431 slug and 17 home runs to lefties. His four-seam fastball and cutter have both been slugged over .418 with nine combined home runs, and Riley Greene is a left-handed bat slugging .497 with fourteen home runs against right-handers. Against Bibee's mix Greene carries a 47% hard-hit rate at home in Comerica Park.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs at +7683 at Novig. Odds are subject to change.
Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 30-135-8 (-30.93U)
Total Wagered Today: Joc Pederson (1U), Pete Alonso (1U), Riley Greene (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.
Affiliate disclosure: This page may contain affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available — 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds and lines were accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically located in a jurisdiction where wagering is legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
Related reading
Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, August 18
Today's top three MLB home run props for Tuesday, August 18: Wilyer Abreu, Austin Riley, and Jordan Walker.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, August 17
Today's top three MLB home run props for Monday, August 17: Matt Olson, Max Muncy, and Miguel Vargas.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Sunday, August 16
Today's top three MLB home run props for Sunday, August 16: Carter Jensen, Heriberto Hernandez, and Junior Caminero.
Find profitable props faster
PropFinder has all the tools to help you make smarter bets and find real edges with data-driven insights.