Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, August 17
I went through all 11 games on Monday, August 17th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.
Matt Olson to hit a HR --- (+312, Kalshi)
ATL@
MIN· Aug 17, 7:40 PM ET
Matt Olson
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Bailey Ober is a fly-ball pitcher whose slider has been crushed by left-handed bats for a .500 average and a 2.000 SLG, with his four-seam sitting hittable behind it. That is a dangerous profile against a lefty who lives in the air.
Olson is a prototypical pull-air left-handed slugger. Over his last 25 batted balls he is running a 93.6 mph exit velocity with a 24% barrel rate, a 56% hard-hit rate, eight balls tracked at 300-plus feet and seven at 350-plus. The spray overlay against Ober's mix at Target Field points to a 26% home run rate on contact. Kalshi has the best number at +312.
Max Muncy to hit a HR --- (+292, Novig)
LAD@
COL· Aug 17, 8:40 PM ET
Max Muncy
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
This one checks every box. Tomoyuki Sugano carries a 1.40 HR risk to left-handed hitters, allowing them a .582 SLG with 17 home runs and a 2.55 HR/9. His four-seam (.717 SLG, 6 HR) and cutter (.786 SLG, 4 HR) both get punished by lefty bats, and Muncy is 2-for-4 with a home run and a 1.500 SLG in his career book against him.
Now add Coors Field, the best home run environment in baseball, to Muncy's pull-heavy left-handed power (20% barrel and a 53% hard-hit rate over his last 15). At +292 on Novig this is a strong price in the ideal spot.
Miguel Vargas to hit a HR --- (+369, DraftKings)
CWS@
CHC· Aug 17, 8:05 PM ET
Miguel Vargas
Over 0.5 Player Home Runs
Shota Imanaga goes to a four-seam fastball 42% of the time against right-handers, and that pitch has already been taken deep nine times this season. The splitter behind it has surrendered seven more home runs.
Vargas mashes left-handed pitching. Against lefties he is running a 95.6 mph exit velocity with 14 balls tracked at 300-plus feet, six at 350-plus and a 61.3% hard-hit rate. At Wrigley Field with this pitcher matchup, +369 on DraftKings is the value play of the card.
HR Prop Parlay
Combining the three legs at +6918 at Novig. Odds are subject to change.
Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+1.50U) --- Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 34-146-8 (-29.31U)
Total Wagered Today: Matt Olson (1U), Max Muncy (1U), Miguel Vargas (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.
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Jake Casso
Jake is a Chicago native and lifelong sports enthusiast who brings energy, creativity, and expertise to the PropFinder team. He plays a key role in developing educational livestreams and producing YouTube content that helps sports bettors better understand betting markets, strategies, and data-driven insights.
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