Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, August 18

I went through all 15 games on Tuesday, August 18th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Wilyer Abreu to hit a HR --- (+475, Caesars)

Merrill Kelly gives up plenty of power to left-handed bats, carrying a 1.07 HR risk to that side with a .526 SLG, 17 home runs allowed and a 2.12 HR/9. That is a dangerous profile at Fenway Park, where the short right-field porch rewards left-handed pull power.

Abreu is heating up. Over his last 15 games his hard-hit rate has climbed to 66.7% and his average exit velocity is up to 93.3, and he just launched a 420-foot home run on 8/15. His broader batted-ball line shows a 95.4 mph exit velocity, a 26.7% barrel rate and a 73.3% hard-hit rate with five balls tracked at 300-plus feet. At +475 on Caesars this is a strong number.

Austin Riley to hit a HR --- (+400, Betway)

Zebby Matthews has been hittable against right-handed bats lately. Over his last ten outings his four-seam fastball has been tagged for a .710 SLG and his sinker for a .833 SLG to that side, and those are exactly the pitches Riley punishes.

Riley is trending up, with his barrel rate climbing to 20% over his last 15 and a 437-foot home run on 8/12 already on the log. His batted-ball profile shows a 94.6 mph exit velocity with six balls tracked at 300-plus feet and six at 350-plus. Betway has the best number at +400.

Jordan Walker to hit a HR --- (+359, DraftKings)

Andrew Abbott leans on a four-seam fastball 43% of the time, and it has already been taken deep nine times this season. Walker mashes left-handed pitching and does his damage in the air.

Walker is red-hot: a 99.1 mph average exit velocity and a 73.3% hard-hit rate over his last 15, with a season line against lefties of a .741 SLG, 17 balls tracked at 300-plus feet and 11 at 350-plus. Add Great American Ball Park, one of the best home run parks in baseball, and +359 on DraftKings is a strong price on the model's favorite bat here.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs into one home run parlay pays +10929. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+0.92U) --- Each prop is a flat 1U bet

Total Results: 35-148-8 (-28.39U)

Total Wagered Today: Wilyer Abreu (1U), Austin Riley (1U), Jordan Walker (1U)

Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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