Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Sunday, August 16

I went through all 15 games on Sunday, August 16th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Carter Jensen to hit a HR --- (+280, FanDuel)

Ryan Johnson is a home run problem against left-handed bats, carrying a 1.87 HR risk to that side. His most-used pitch to lefties is a cutter, and it has been barreled at a 41.7% clip with a .571 SLG and a 58.3% hard-hit rate. The splitter and sweeper behind it have been squared up too.

Jensen mashes right-handed pitching. Against righties he is slugging .865 with a .481 ISO, a 95.7 mph exit velocity, 12 balls tracked at 300-plus feet and 8 at 350-plus, and a 63.2% hard-hit rate. His line against cutters from that side is a 1.000 SLG, which is exactly the pitch Johnson throws him most. At +280 on FanDuel this is a strong price for the profile.

Heriberto Hernandez to hit a HR --- (+350, Hard Rock)

Nick Lodolo has a real problem with right-handed hitters, sitting at a 0.87 HR risk to that side. His sinker has been demolished for a .848 SLG with a .500 ISO and six home runs, and his four-seam fastball at a .460 SLG is hittable as well.

Hernandez is crushing left-handed pitching. Against lefties he is running a 92.2 mph exit velocity with a 310-foot average distance, seven balls tracked at 300-plus feet, five at 350-plus and a 20% barrel rate. The spray overlay with Lodolo's mix points to home runs on the majority of his air contact, and Great American Ball Park is one of the best home run parks in the league. Hard Rock has the best number at +350.

Junior Caminero to hit a HR --- (+330, Kalshi)

Trevor Rogers goes to a four-seam fastball 49.3% of the time against right-handers, and that pitch has been tagged for a .556 SLG. PropFinder's matchup grid lights up here: five of Caminero's seven strongest power zones overlap Rogers' most-used zones, with edges of +46 and +40 up and away where Caminero's power scores reach 98 and 100.

Caminero brings elite raw power, with five balls tracked at 300-plus feet and four at 350-plus in the recent sample. He does his damage on elevated fastballs, exactly the pitch Rogers throws him most. Kalshi is the best number at +330.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +5965 at Novig. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3.00U) --- Each prop is a flat 1U bet

Total Results: 33-144-8 (-30.81U)

Total Wagered Today: Carter Jensen (1U), Heriberto Hernandez (1U), Junior Caminero (1U)

Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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