Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, July 20

I went through all 15 games on Monday, July 20th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Bryce Harper to hit a HR --- (+350, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSLAD@PHI· Jul 20, 7:10 PM ET

Bryce Harper

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+350

Matchup vs. Emmet Sheehan (Dodgers), Citizens Bank Park

Harper leads off the card and the split is the reason. Sheehan has been vulnerable to left handed bats all season, a 1.81 HR/9 with a .486 SLG, a .240 ISO, and a 26.5% HR/FB rate to that side, and he attacks lefties with the four seamer 45% of the time and the changeup another 25%. Against the pitches Sheehan throws, Harper has 11 home runs and 17 near misses with a .675 SLG, a 16.0% barrel rate, and a 53.2% hard hit rate, and he has put 26 batted balls over 300 feet with 15 past 350. Over his last 15 at bats against right handed pitching he is barreling that four seam and changeup mix at 20% with a 94.0 average exit velocity, a stretch that includes home runs of 405, 390, and 378 feet. Citizens Bank Park does the rest.

Pick 2: Kyle Stowers to hit a HR --- (+350, Hard Rock Bet)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIA@HOU· Jul 20, 8:10 PM ET

Kyle Stowers

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+350

Matchup vs. Ronel Blanco (Astros), Daikin Park

Stowers is next and this one comes with a note. Blanco has not thrown a pitch in 2026 yet, so everything here is his 2025 book, and that book has a real hole in it. Against left handed hitters he allowed a 2.89 HR/9 with a .522 SLG, a .290 ISO, and a 22.7% HR/FB rate, and he went to the four seamer 38% of the time to that side with the changeup and curveball behind it. Stowers has 4 home runs and 8 near misses against that mix with a 55.7% hard hit rate and a 92.6 average exit velocity, and 23 of his batted balls have travelled over 300 feet with 16 past 350. The most useful number is the spray chart: map his fly balls off Blanco's arsenal onto Daikin Park and 26.1% of them clear the fence.

Pick 3: Garrett Mitchell to hit a HR --- (+567, Onyx Odds)

PLAYER HOME RUNSNYM@MIL· Jul 20, 7:40 PM ET

Garrett Mitchell

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+567

Matchup vs. Freddy Peralta (Mets), American Family Field

Mitchell closes the card at the best price and he is the definition of a bat waiting to break through. He has just 2 home runs against Peralta's pitch mix but 8 near misses, and the contact behind it is loud: a 22.2% barrel rate, a 71.1% hard hit rate, and a 96.7 average exit velocity with 14 batted balls over 300 feet. Over his last 15 at bats against right handed pitching he is averaging 99.1 mph off the bat on the four seamer while barreling 20% of them. Peralta leans on that four seamer 52% of the time against lefties and it has cost him, a 1.71 HR/9 with a .465 SLG and a 22.4% HR/FB rate to that side. At +567 the price has not caught up to the quality of contact.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +12406 at Novig. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 21-80-6 (-7.63U)
Total Wagered Today: Harper (1U), Stowers (1U), Mitchell (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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