Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Tuesday, July 21

I went through all 15 games on Tuesday, July 21st to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Junior Caminero to hit a HR --- (+277, Onyx Odds)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTB@TOR· Jul 21, 7:07 PM ET

Junior Caminero

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+277

Matchup vs. Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), Rogers Centre

Caminero leads off the card and he is the hottest bat on the board with 9 home runs over his last 20 games. Gausman has been getting hit hard by right handed bats lately. Over his last five starts the four seamer he throws 41.8% of the time has allowed a .792 SLG with 71.4% hard contact, and the slider behind it has been worse, a .692 SLG and a .462 ISO with a 30% barrel rate and 2 home runs allowed on that pitch alone. Against the pitches Gausman throws, Caminero has 6 home runs and 7 near misses with a .695 SLG, a .356 ISO, a 19.0% barrel rate, and a 69.0% hard hit rate, and he has put 10 batted balls over 300 feet with 6 past 350. Rogers Centre plays above average for home runs and at +277 he is the shortest price on the card for good reason.

Pick 2: Mike Trout to hit a HR --- (+414, DraftKings)

PLAYER HOME RUNSSTL@LAA· Jul 21, 9:38 PM ET

Mike Trout

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+414

Matchup vs. Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals), Angel Stadium

Trout is next and the curveball is the pitch to watch. On the season Liberatore throws it 19.6% of the time to right handed hitters and it has been his most damaging offering, a .500 SLG and a .294 ISO with 3 home runs allowed and a 17.6% barrel rate, and over half the contact against it goes to the pull side in the air. His four seamer has given up 4 home runs at a .426 SLG on top of that. Against the pitches Liberatore throws, Trout has 3 home runs and 3 near misses with a .472 SLG and a 20.0% barrel rate, and his batted balls average 288.5 feet with 14 over 300 and 8 past 350. With the wind blowing out at 7 mph in Anaheim, this is the kind of spot where he only needs one mistake.

Pick 3: Dominic Canzone to hit a HR --- (+440, FanDuel)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCIN@SEA· Jul 21, 9:40 PM ET

Dominic Canzone

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+440

Matchup vs. Chase Burns (Reds), T-Mobile Park

Canzone closes the card at the longest price and he has the best profile against this arsenal. Burns is a two pitch pitcher to lefties and over his last ten outings he has gone to the four seamer 59.3% of the time, allowing a .436 SLG and a .218 ISO with 4 home runs and a 12.5% barrel rate on that pitch. Canzone has been punishing that mix all year with 7 home runs and 11 near misses, a .638 SLG, a .325 ISO, a 21.0% barrel rate, and a 58.1% hard hit rate at a 95.9 average exit velocity. He has 20 batted balls over 300 feet with 13 past 350. The park is the one thing working against him here, so this is a bet on the swing and the pitch rather than the setting, and +440 is enough price to make that worth taking.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +8387 at Novig. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+1.50U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 22-82-6 (-6.13U)
Total Wagered Today: Caminero (1U), Trout (1U), Canzone (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

Affiliate disclosure: This page may contain affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.

Must be of legal age in your jurisdiction. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling is a problem, support is available — 1-800-GAMBLER.