Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Sunday, July 19

I went through all 15 games on Sunday, July 19th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Pick 1: Mickey Moniak to hit a HR --- (+355, Novig)

PLAYER HOME RUNSCIN@COL· Jul 19, 3:10 PM ET

Mickey Moniak

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+355

Matchup vs. Hunter Greene (Reds), Coors Field, 3:10 PM ET

Moniak leads off the card and the zone chart is the reason. Greene's most targeted spot inside the strike zone against left handed bats is the middle third, where he goes 13.6% of the time, and that is exactly where Moniak does his most damage with a 100 power score. Three of Moniak's hot zones fall inside Greene's seven most used, and the middle of the plate rates as a plus 58 edge for the hitter. On the season Greene leans on the four seamer 59% of the time to lefties, and against the pitches he throws Moniak has 5 home runs and 7 near misses with a .554 SLG, a 12.3% barrel rate, and a 43.9% hard hit rate. Add the friendliest home run park in baseball and this is a strong place to start.

Pick 2: Brandon Nimmo to hit a HR --- (+407, Onyx Odds)

PLAYER HOME RUNSTEX@ATL· Jul 19, 1:35 PM ET

Brandon Nimmo

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+407

Matchup vs. Grant Holmes (Braves), Truist Park, 1:35 PM ET

Nimmo is next and the contact has been outstanding even when the results have not followed. Over his last 15 at bats against right handed pitching he is barreling the ball at a 33.3% clip with a 94.8 average exit velocity, well above his 14.5% barrel rate for the season, and that stretch includes fly outs of 400, 403, and 391 feet. Holmes has been vulnerable to left handed bats with the four seamer, a .582 SLG and a .273 ISO with 4 home runs allowed on that pitch, and he throws it 34% of the time to that side. Against the pitches Holmes throws Nimmo has 5 home runs and 9 near misses with a 55.4% hard hit rate, and when you map his fly balls off that four seam and slider mix onto Truist Park, 20% of them clear the fence. With the wind blowing out around 6 mph, the profile fits.

Pick 3: Jackson Chourio to hit a HR --- (+430, FanDuel)

PLAYER HOME RUNSMIA@MIL· Jul 19, 2:10 PM ET

Jackson Chourio

Over 0.5 Player Home Runs

Bet now+430

Matchup vs. Eury Perez (Marlins), American Family Field, 2:10 PM ET

Chourio closes the card at the best price of the three. Perez has been a different pitcher depending on the handedness he faces, a 0.74 HR/9 against lefties but a 2.21 HR/9 against right handed bats with a .459 SLG allowed to that side. The slider is where it goes wrong for him, a .850 SLG and a .500 ISO with 3 home runs and a 31.2% barrel rate against it, and he still goes to it 19% of the time versus righties. Chourio has been hitting the ball hard without much to show for it, 5 home runs and 10 near misses against the pitches Perez throws, a 20.7% barrel rate, and 20 batted balls over 300 feet including 13 past 350. American Family Field plays above average for home runs and at +430 this is the best number on the card.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining all three home run props: +11122 at Hard Rock Bet. High variance by nature — stake accordingly.
Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 0-3 (-3.00U) (two near homers -_-)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 21-77-6 (-4.63U)
Total Wagered Today: Moniak (1U), Nimmo (1U), Chourio (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

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