Best MLB Home Run Props Today HR Picks for Monday, July 27

I went through all 12 games on Monday, July 27th to find the best home run matchups so you don't have to. Using PropFinder's data tools, I've identified a combination of vulnerable pitchers, strong hitter splits, favorable weather, and ballpark factors. Below are my top three MLB home run props and best home run picks for today's slate.

Brandon Lowe to hit a HR --- (+375, Hard Rock)

Matchup vs. Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks), PNC Park, 6:40 PM ET

Kelly's four-seam is a problem against left-handed bats. He throws it 32% of the time to lefties and it gets punished, a .725 SLG against with a 57.1% hard-hit rate, 22.2% barrels, and 8 home runs allowed on the pitch. His cutter has been even worse, a .865 SLG with a 59.4% hard-hit rate and four more homers. Brandon Lowe is exactly the kind of pull-side lefty who makes that hurt: 14 home runs and 23 near-misses on the season, a .631 SLG and .350 ISO, an 18% barrel rate, 47.5% hard contact, and 42 balls hit 300-plus feet with 24 of them clearing 350. The last time he squared a cutter he sent it 405 feet at 108 mph, a home run in all 30 parks. PNC is not a launching pad, so this comes down to the bat against the matchup, and if Kelly leaves a fastball or cutter up, Lowe has the raw power to send it out.

Luis Garcia Jr. to hit a HR --- (+397, Hard Rock)

Matchup vs. Max Scherzer (Toronto Blue Jays), Nationals Park, 6:45 PM ET

Scherzer leans on his four-seam nearly half the time against left-handed hitters, 47.3% usage, and it has been extremely hittable, a .731 SLG against with a 43.5% hard-hit rate, and his home run risk to lefties grades among the highest on the board. Garcia steps in as a lefty with the platoon edge and brings real thump: 5 home runs and 6 near-misses with a 20% barrel rate, 52% hard contact, 7 balls hit 300-plus feet and 6 of them past 350, and a 93.3 mph average exit velocity. The zone overlap is what pushes it over the top, his hottest power zones sit middle and up, and those are exactly the areas Scherzer works to lefties most. A locked-in lefty against a homer-prone fastball in a neutral park is a spot worth taking.

Nathaniel Lowe to hit a HR --- (+482, Hard Rock)

Matchup vs. Slade Cecconi (Cleveland Guardians), Great American Ball Park, 7:10 PM ET

This is the highest-upside swing and the longest price, and it is all about pitch fit and park. Cecconi gives up hard contact to left-handed bats right across his arsenal, a .507 SLG on the four-seam, .448 on the cutter, and .521 on the sinker. Nate Lowe punishes exactly those pitches against right-handers, and the cutter especially, where he is running a 1.250 SLG with a 38.5% barrel rate and 61.5% hard contact. Over his recent look against right-handers he has a 33% home run to fly ball rate with home runs off both a four-seam (362 feet) and a cutter (380 feet). Now drop it into Great American Ball Park, one of the friendliest home run yards in baseball. Locked-in lefty power meeting a hittable arsenal in a bandbox is exactly the shot you take when the price runs this long.

HR Prop Parlay

Combining the three legs at +13640 at Hard Rock Bet. Odds are subject to change.

Yesterday's Results: 1-2 (+1.00U)
Each prop is a flat 1U bet
Total Results: 24-98-6 (-13.73U)
Total Wagered Today: Brandon Lowe (1U), Luis Garcia Jr. (1U), Nathaniel Lowe (1U)
Results don't include any combination of picks. I'm just tracking straight bets.

Affiliate disclosure: This page may contain affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Must be of legal age to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, support is available — 1-800-GAMBLER.